Saturday, September 22, 2007
Congratulations Max
2007 FNFT CHAMPS
Full wrap up tomorrow night.
The death of Urban Shocker has been highly exaggerated.
Brandon Webb
Webb drove in a run with a single in the bottom of the 2nd. Arizona leads 3-0.
3 3 0 0 1 1 (6 points) - Arizona still leads 3-0.
The D-Backs have tacked on a run with a Mark Reynolds homer. 4-0.
4 3 0 0 1 3 (11 points) - Brandon Webb is butter. 4-0 D-Backs.
5 3 0 0 1 3 (14 points) - Things are looking up for Joe. The D-Backs have taken a 5-0 lead in the game increasing the chance that Webb will pick up 4 extra points for the win, and also increasing the chance that Valverde won't pitch, meaning Joe would get Cordero's 8. Add that all up and he's at 26 added points - 4 more than he needs to win.
6 5 0 0 1 5 (17 points) - Arizona leads 5-0. Webb is due up to bat 3rd in the bottom of the 6th. He'll most likely bat and stay in the game.
***Webb is out of the game after giving up a couple of runs - stay tuned.
6.3 7 2 2 2 5 - (11 points) Plus Webb is still responsible for a baserunner on second. If he scores, it's probably over for Joe.
Two D-Back relievers put out the fire and Webb's 11 points are intact. Arizona still leads the game, now by a score of 5-2. If they hold the lead, Webb will get the win and another 4 points. Add 8 from Cordero, and Joe would win by 1 point However, with the score this close, it now brings Valverde back into play. Once Valverde comes into the game it would erase the 8 from Cordero and Valverde would need 7 for Joe to win. Not an impossible score for a closer but he would still have to pitch pretty decent. A 1-2-3 inning with no strikeouts and a save would be just enough.
Arizona threatens but does not score in the bottom of the 7th. The lead is still three. Valverde last pitched on Wednesday so he is very fresh. He is almost always used from the start of the 9th inning in save situations. I would think it's highly likely that he will get in the game and the FNFT World Series will come down to him.
I see Joe is watching attentively in the Comments section.
The Dodgers go quietly in the top of the 8th. Here's a nightmare scenario for Joe - suppose the D-Backs score exactly one run in the bottom of the 8th. Would Bob Melvin bring Valverde into the game in a non-save situation??? Or would he bring in someone else, keeping Valverde out of the game and handing the win to Joe? If the D-Backs lead by three going into the top of the 9th it would be a save situation - any more than that it wouldn't be.
Arizona has runners on second and third with one out following a Jeff Cirillo double.
They're walking Chris Young to load the bases. If I were Joe, I wouldn't know what to root for. Runs are good if they keep Valverde out of the game but devastating if not.
Jeff Salazar has singled to drive in a run. It's 6-2 D-Backs. Joe must root for more scoring in this inning.
Out of the inning. Still 6-2. We'll know in about a minute if Valverde comes in. I have a bad feeling for Joe. Arizona has too much to play for to not use him. He need 7 points and without a save he can't get it even if he strikes out the side.
Valverde is in the game. Unless I counted something wrong, it's pretty much over. I'll review everything before I make the final call.
The game is over. Five points for Valverde. The nighmare sceario played out. Max can thank a pair of Jeff's - Cirillo and Salazar - for delivering the run that kept Valverde from getting a save and handing him his second FNFT title.
For the love of Ned Yost!
Team | W | L | Pct | GB | GR | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cubs | 82 | 73 | 0.529 | 0.0 | 7 | 89.5% |
Brewers | 79 | 75 | 0.513 | 2.5 | 8 | 10.5% |
You pinch hit for your best pitcher...
WITH ANOTHER PITCHER!!!...
SO HE CAN BUNT???
AND THEN BRING IN A GUY WHO'S BEEN IN THE MINORS ALL YEAR AND SUCKS???
OH, THE HUMANITY!!!!
The bar has been set
So, Brandon Webb goes to the hill tonight needing to score well to keep Joe alive in the World Series. In addition to Webb, Joe gets a reliever. His #1 RP is Valverde who coincidentally pitches for Arizona. If Webb can pitch well enough to set him up for a save, it would be a bonus for Joe. If Valverde does not pitch, The Bombers would get 8 from Francisco Cordero's game last night.
Joe would win a tiebreaker on Alex Rios' 11 point game, so the magic number for Webb & Co. is 22.
Friday, September 21, 2007
UnCork the Champagne?
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Untangled Webb
Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt has apparently been pushed back to Sunday which would leave Max empty handed. Tide turning?
Poo-holes out
"If I feel like I can play, I'm going to play," Pujols said, according to the Post-Dispatch. "But the way I feel right now, I would say no. But we'll see the next couple of days."
He refused to say he wouldn't play.
"I don't play for numbers. I play to accomplish some goals. And my goal is to win as many World Series as I can and to be in as many playoffs as I can."
Uh, maybe you ought to take a glance at the standings, Al.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
No points for Giambi tonight
NEW YORK -- Jason Giambi received some better news regarding his aching right foot on Wednesday. The results of his midafternoon MRI came back negative, revealing just a bone bruise.Giambi, 36, was hit on the top of the foot by a pitch on Monday, against the Orioles. Though he didn't leave the game, he reported to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday unable to start as expected and had his foot heavily wrapped before leaving the park on Wednesday.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Game 4 in progress
In the only day game Max's two Colorado hitters fail to produce big points. Only 4 for Matt Holliday, the Series hero so far, and a size 4 collar for Garrett Atkins. Max is up 4-0.
Jason Giambi, Joe's 1B, is not in the starting lineup tonight, however Alex Rios has started with an RBI double. It's 4-4.
Kelly Johnson, Max's 2B is not in the lineup tonight.
The 7:00 games are about to get underway. Both starting pitchers, Harang for Joe and Hamels for Max are on the mound tonight. Joe also has three Reds hitters going tonight - and the Reds play the Cubs. Sorry Max, but tonight I'm rootin' against ya.
Matt Suhey drove in two with a double. 10-4 Max.
Poo-holes is not in the starting lineup. This may not get settled tonight.
The Reds put two runs on the board in the first for Aaron Harang. Phillips and Re-Encarnacion chip in RBI hits, and Adam Dunn a walk. Add a run for Matt Suhey - it's 13-11 Joe.
Harang gets through the first 1-2-3 with a K. 17-11 Joe.
Philly has staked Hamels to a 1-0 lead in the top of the first.
***NEWS ALERT*** The Chicago Cubs may have just won the National League Central. Ben Sheets has left the game in the second inning with a hamstring injury.
Man, that takes a lot of wind out of my sails.
Brian McCann hits a single. One more point for Joe.
1-2-3 for Hamels in the first.
Another 1-2-3 for Harang with another K. Reds are up 3-0 on the Cubs. Joe is up 22-14 on Max.
Hanley Ramirez is on the board with a base hit.
Cole Hamels has given up two runs in the bottom of the 2nd to knock Max back a few pegs. It's now 22-12.
Edgar Renteria has an RBI single - another 3 points for Joe. 25-12.
Cole Hamels is not sharp. He has given up another run in the bottom of the third. Meanwhile Aaron Harang has allowed only one hit through 3-2/3-innings. 26-11 Joe.
GRAND SLAM Johnny Estrada! Brewers go up 5-1. Cubs are losing 3-0.
The Cucking Fubs are making some noise against Harang. They have bases load with two outs in the 4th.
Cubs score two off of Harang helping Max's cause somewhat. 25-11 Joe.
28-17 now as I've missed a few things while I've been watching the Brewers and the Cubs. But the big news is that Cole Hamels is out of the game after three innings (The Commissioner's reputation for selecting starting pitchers is untarnished). He leaves the game with -1 points and could still get the loss if Philly doesn't come back. I don't see anything about an injury. I think it's just a case of Charlie Manuel not wanting to take any chances as Philly is playing for a playoff spot.
RBI single for Matsui - now with 11 points. 28-20 as Max is hanging in there for the time being.
Harang with 10 points through 5-innings. 31-20.
Edwin Encarnacion helps Joe's and the Brewer's cause with a solo homer. 39-21 Joe.
Harang is through six (14 points plus possible win). He might be done for the night as he is due up second in the bottom of the 6th. Joe has stretched the lead to 43-23.
Looking ahead to Game 5 if there is one - Roy Oswalt is scheduled on Saturday for the Astros. Joe it appears will be looking for a pickup as the MLB teams start to shuffle their rotations around late in the season. Should I put the curse of death on? Ian Kennedy (this was the guy with the same first name as a famous writter and the same last name as a famous drunk.)
Harang is coming back out for the 7th.
The Phillies have come back to tie tha Cards, taknig Cole Hamels off the hook. He finishes with -1.
All three of Joe's Reds hitters have reached base in the 8th. Bases load with Bombers.
Aaron Harang is done. Seven innings - 15 points and can still get the win. It's 51-24 Joe.
Bobby Jenks did not pitch tonight in the Sox 3-2 loss to Kansas City.
I'm going to call it a wrap for tonight. I've got Joe leading 57-29. Max still gets Poo-holes and Kelly Johnson; either of whom could take a big bite out of that lead. Joe would still get Jason Giambi. Both teams get their reliever (Borowski has 8 for Max if Jenks doesn't pitch). It ain't over till it's over, but a good chance we'll have a Game 5. More updates tomorrow as I am able.
Game 4 realtime updates
So... (are you ready for this) Stolt stolts; Stolt stolts for Joe.
Back in a couple of hours...
Monday, September 17, 2007
Pushing back
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Crappy
Capuano has some very different splits throwing to the different Brewer catchers:
I Split G BA OBP SLGAs do a few other on the staff:
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+-
J Estrada 21 .297 .363 .474
D Miller 6 .240 .306 .413
D Bush
I Split G BA OBP SLG
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+-
J Estrada 20 .294 .339 .485
D Miller 10 .278 .335 .465
C Vargas
I Split G BA OBP SLG
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+-
J Estrada 18 .300 .349 .499
D Miller 8 .248 .357 .421
Sheets and Suppan (who apparently uses Miller as his personal catcher) don't have as noticeable of splits - however neither of them strongly favor Estrada.
Sheets
I Split G BA OBP SLGSuppan
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+-
J Estrada 21 .251 .298 .402
D Miller 2 .250 .291 .423
I Split G BA OBP SLG
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+-
D Miller 16 .296 .351 .419
J Estrada 15 .299 .359 .473
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Game 3

Combining a balanced attack on offense and a productive 19 point outing from Roy Oswalt, Max logs his second strait 70+ point game, and beats Joe in Game 3 of the FNFT World Series, taking a commanding 3-0 lead.
[Barring a miracle anyway. Joe is down 30 points, but still gets his reliever, or needs either Harang or Webb to make an emergency start today.]
Following my advice, Joe sent Andy Pettitte to the hill who turned it to a -3 hole. Long-time FNFT vets know full well the value of the Commissioner's advice on pitching. If Ted Lilly throws a 20+ point game today, the ghost of Kent Mercker will haunt Joe for years to come.
Despite finally making the right choice between Adrian Gonzalez and Jason Giambi, and solid games by Brewer killers Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips, Joe's offense could not overcome the egg laid by Pettitte. Solo home runs by Poo-Holes and Matt Holiday paced a 42-point offensive showing for Max, despite none of his hitters reaching double digits in points. Holliday's home run was his third of the Series, tying him with Adam Dunn for the Series lead.
Joe will presumably have Aaron Harang on the mound Tuesday (@CHC, Trachsel), as he tries to keep some dirt on the FNFT floor. Max may counter with Cole Hamels (@StL, Wells) who will be making his first start since August 16th. Roy Oswalt (v. Mil, Sheets) and Ian Snell (@SD, Young) are both options for Max on Wednesday if Hamel's injury scares him off. If I were him, I would pitch Snamelwalt. In fact, Max's starting rotation is so piled up on itself right now that none of his current starters are slated to pitch Friday or Saturday for a possible Game 5.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, I will be providing play-by-play coverage of Tuesday night's game here in the blog as the FNFT possibly crowns its champion for 2007. There has never been a 4-0 sweep in FNFT World Series history.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
OSWALT UPDATE
Rather be red than dead
In picking up Edwin (Re-) Encarnacion, Joe now has five Cincinnati Reds on his roster.
It is being reported that Cole Hamels will pitch next Tuesday (our Game 4).
Classic video.
No play-by-play on Friday night. I'm going to the Brewer game.
Useless information
Team | W | L | Pct | GB | GR | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago | 75 | 71 | 0.514 | 0.0 | 16 | 55.8% |
Milwaukee | 74 | 71 | 0.510 | 0.5 | 17 | 42.7% |
St. Louis | 69 | 75 | 0.479 | 5.0 | 18 | 1.5% |
If you play a baseball game in the middle of a forest...
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Looking ahead to Game 3
Two of Max's starters, Roy Oswalt and Ian Snell, go head-to-head Friday night in Pittsburgh. I have a good guess as to whom he'll choose.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that the Phillies expect to have Cole Hamels back for three starts before the end of the regular season. This news, along with his 2-0 start, puts Max squarely in the driver's seat.
Game 2 update
UPDATE: Webb gets through the first 1-2-3, but with no strikeouts.
UPDATE: Webb goes 1-2-3 in the second as well, but again with no strikeouts. A perfect game with no strikeouts would be 45 points - not enough.
UPDATE: OK, Dave Roberts just tripled for the Giants taking away the 10 point bonus for a no-hitter. Webb would now need 13 strikeouts and to go perfect the rest of the way.
UPDATE: Base hit by some scrub outfielder. It's over. Max wins.
Glaus over

MLB.com is reporting that Troy Glaus will have season-ending surgery
Another steroid abuser fades mysteriously out of view.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Game 2 (in progress)
Just hitters and relievers tonight - both starting pitchers go tomorrow: Webb (Zambi's Bombers), and McGowan (US).
Max draws first blood as Hanley Ramirez (US) homers to lead off the first inning for the Marlins. Add a base hit for Corey Hart (US) as I'm typing this - Max is up 9-0.
Adam Dunn (ZB) has hit a solo homer. Alex Rios (ZB) has a single. Now 9-9.
Hanley Ramirez (US) hit a single. He's now 2-for-2 in the game. Max up 10-9.
Yovanni Gallardo, who would have been my pick instead of Dustin McGowan if I were Max, has three strikeouts in three shutout innings so far tonight.
Pudge (US) is indeed in the game and hit an RBI single in the first. Max up 13-9.
Brandon Phillips (ZB) walked to put another tick mark on Joe's side. I also just noticed that Alex Gonzalez (ZB) is not in the starting lineup for the Reds. 13-10.
GRAND SLAM for Adam Dunn (ZB), His second HR of the game giving him 22 points - SO FAR. The game is only in the third inning. Reds lead the Cards 5-1. Joe leads Max 24-13.
Brian McCann (ZB) has a double. 26-13.
Solo jack for Corey Hart (US). Also a walk for Pujols (US) and a base hit for Pudge (US) somewhere along the way there. Max is back in the game down 26-24.
I'm trying to not watch the Cubs game, but Ryan Theriot (ZB) has walked for the second time in the game. Fuckhim. Joe 28, Max 24.
Six shutout innings and seven Ks now for Gallardo. 20 points left on the free-agent pile.
Happy Holliday (Matt, US) - two run homer. Max goes up 34-28.
Jason Giambi (ZB) has homered and has 15 points on Joe's bench.
Garrett Atkins (US) has singled and scored. Max up 37-28.
Brewers and Cubs are winning; Cardinals are losing. The Cards are in free-fall out of the pennant race.
Hanley Ramirez (US) has doubled and scored. Max is piling on - up 40-28.
Kelly Johnson (US), who I've ignored so far tonight has 8 points with a 2-RBI single and a couple of walks. Ditto for Tori Hunter (US) who has a single. 49-28 Max.
Poo-holes (US) single gets Max to the 50 mark on offense. More than his whole team had in Game 1. Max up 50-28. Adam Dunn (ZB) has been taken out of the game. He finishes with 22 points.
Brandon Phillips (ZB) scored a run and Brian McCann (ZB) doubled since the last time I looked. 50-31.
Tom Glavine is listed as the Mets starting pitcher tonight but was taken out of the game before giving up a hit, walk, or out. Odd - wonder if he's hurt. Brewers win - at least they stay even.
A few more points on the scoreboard. Brian McCann (ZB) and Kelly Johnson (US) have walked; Carlos Lee (ZB) singled; Pudge (US) got a late single, and Garrett Atkins (US) an RBI double. As the early games are starting to wrap up, Max is up 56-33.
Matt Holliday (US) hits his second home run of the game. Hideki Matsui (US) gets on the board with a sac fly. Carlos Lee (ZB) socres a run for Joe. Max takes a commanding 67-34 lead.
Garrett Atkins (US) walks and Tori Hunter (US) picks up an RBI single with a run scored. Max goes up 74-34.
Hanley Ramirez (US) has homered again. This is a whoopin'. 82 points of offense for Max!
Well, there you have it. The anatomy of an FNFT game. As I wrap this up for the night, Max has a commanding 48 point lead. Tori Hunter is his only hitter still playing. Joe has Ryan Theriot and Carlos Lee whose game is in the 8th inning and Adrian Gonzalez who is just underway. Barring a meltdown by Dustin McGowan tomorrow night and a gem by Brandon Webb and/or some off the chart scoring by relievers, Max is going to go up 2-0 in the Series. If I notice anything dramatic later tonight, I'll post an update. Let me know if you were following along. I sometimes wonder if I'm talking to a wall. If you are first reading this on Thursday or Friday (or February) because you were watching some mindless crap on TV on Tuesday night and not following the FNFT World Series on the Internet, remember - if no one has ever told you that you need to get a life; only then do you need to get a life.
Monday, September 10, 2007
Did you know
"September 9, 1928 - At age 38 Yankee pitcher Urban Shocker dies of pneumonia in Denver, where he had gone for his health. Only now does it become known that he had suffered from an enlarged heart and was unable to sleep lying down for two years. Shocker, who never had a losing season, was 18-6 in 1927 but appeared in only one game in 1928."
- The Baseball Chronology,
Jim Charleton, Ed. (1991)
No Glaus in the house
Webb of defeat
Sunday, September 09, 2007
HGH
Pennant Race
Team | W | L | Pct | GB | GR | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee | 73 | 69 | 0.514 | 0.0 | 20 | 56.6% |
Chicago | 72 | 70 | 0.507 | 1.0 | 20 | 33.2% |
St. Louis | 69 | 71 | 0.493 | 3.0 | 22 | 10.2% |
Cincinnati | 64 | 79 | 0.448 | 9.5 | 19 | 0.0% |
Pittsburgh | 63 | 80 | 0.441 | 10.5 | 19 | 0.0% |
Houston | 62 | 81 | 0.434 | 11.5 | 19 | 0.0% |
The Tief Championship Probability Estimator now calculates that the Brewers odds of winning the NL Central are again over 50%.
With a few more tweaks, I am going to take this thing national and make it known and available to natonal sports writters and bloggers. I'd like to give it a different, more generic, more non-Tief name. Have any ideas?
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Savior from the East?

Max's #2 SP Cole Hamels threw briefly in the outfield before Saturday's game and hopes to return to the Phillies' rotation sometime "in the next two weeks." Taking that literally, he could be available for Game 5.
Meanwhile, Ian Snell's work is done in Chicago. He would had scored either 6 or 8 points, depending on the outcome, meaning that Max's pickup of Billingsley was a winning move.
***GAME 1***
As it is, a shrewed pickup of Chad Billinsley puts the game in the books for Max saving him from having to wait out Ian Snell today.
Joe's switch to Adrian Gonzalez netted him 6 points over Jason Giambi, however if he'd have played his other Gonzalez - Alex - he would have won the game. Gotta get those sky pointing ____s (rhymes with pricks) back in the game.
If it's any consolation to Joe, in three of the last four FNFT World Series, the loser of Game 1 has come back to win the Series.
Game 2 is Tuesday. Brandon Webb is again on the hill for Joe (on Wednesday). Billingsley won't pitch until Thursday leaving Max with either Gil Meche, or any one of a number of unknown, promising, young pitching prospects who are slated to pitch one of the two days.
Friday, September 07, 2007



Thursday, September 06, 2007
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Lineups, signups
Meanwhile, I've invited Joe and Max to signup as authors to the blog. So far Max has managed to get me a post via email and Joe has managed to create his own blog separate from this one. Do you remember the Monty Python skit, Upper Class Twit of the Year? ...never mind. Keep at it guys. It would be great to have you along for the ride.
First shot across the bow
Mark Mulder
Pennant race
Team | W | L | Odds |
---|---|---|---|
Chicago | 70 | 67 | 44.2% |
Milwaukee | 70 | 68 | 34.2% |
St. Louis | 67 | 67 | 21.6% |
What the Tief Championship Probability Estimator doesn't take into consideration is the fact that the Cubs and Cardinals play each other 5 times next week. That hurts the Brewers chances rather than helps. One of those teams is going to win at least 3 of those 5 games.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
One game playoff
(You know I'm going to be all over this.)
UPDATE: OK. I'll drop it. I won't cheapen the real World Series by having some imaginary tag-along team involved as well. Good luck to Joe and Max. I'll save my case for adding a wild card for another day.
(But Dale would have won)
Cheap immitations
Monday, September 03, 2007
More bad news for Max
Cole Hamels experienced more pain in his elbow during a bullpen session on Friday and was scratched from a Sunday start. He will remain on the DL and take a few more days off before trying to throw again.
Max's number three starter, Roy Oswalt, is scheduled to pitch next Sunday which means he will miss Games 1 and 2, and probably pitch Friday of Game 3.
That leaves Ian Snell who is scheduled to pitch Saturday of Game 1 or Gil Meche, who pitches Friday. It's possible (actually, likely) that none of Max's pitchers will go in Game 2. Meche would possibly be available for Game 3 if Oswalt somehow gets shuffled around in the rotation.
Max also has Chris Crapuano (sic).
On the other hand... Joe has his ace Brandon Webb pitching Friday of Game 1. Webb will probably come back again for Wednesday of Game 2, then Aaron Harang is in line for Game 3.
Start scouting pitchers Max!!!
GAME 1 HINT - First name the same as a famous writer; last name the same as a famous drunk.
GAME 2 HINT - What you find just above a woman's crotch (unless she shaved it off).
[There's actually a better choice for Game 2 but it didn't make for as good of a joke.]
UPDATE: More Bedard injury news.
UPDATE: Another Bedard injury update. It is beginning to appear likely that Bedard will not pitch anymore this year. There are two ways to win the World Series - with good players or with luck. Max is going to need to rely on the later.
Golden opportunity turns to golden shower
Current odds through Monday…
Team | W | L | Odds |
| 70 | 66 | 53.5% |
| 69 | 68 | 26.1% |
| 67 | 67 | 20.3% |
| 62 | 76 | 0.0% |
| 62 | 76 | 0.0% |
| 60 | 77 | 0.0% |
Had Yost, Turnblow, et al, not given away Monday’s game…
Team | W | L | Odds |
| 70 | 66 | 47.3% |
| 70 | 67 | 35.7% |
| 67 | 67 | 16.9% |
| 62 | 76 | 0.0% |
| 61 | 77 | 0.0% |
| 60 | 77 | 0.0% |
You can only trust half of what I say. I am pompous, arrogant, and think I know way more than you.
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Tidbits
For the second year in a row, and third time in the last four years, the two teams leading their divisions after Game 5 went on to the World Series.
Max beat Joe in the regular season head-to-head season series 17-12-1 tie, however Joe won the last three games.
Joe scored 75 points or more in four of the last five regular season games.
This is Joe's first appearance in the World Series in his second year in the league.
This is Max's second appearance in the World Series. He lost to Move Along Betty (Avery) in 2000, 4 games to 3. He won his only league championship in 1990.
UPDATE: If Max does not win the World Series, he will tie the record of 17 consecutive seasons without a championship. (I'd have a partner in futility.)