Back Home Again

Back Home Again in Indiana

As most of you are aware, it's getting close to the time when the FNFT Commissioner's Office shuts down for a few days while Tief and Jacob go to the Danica Patrick show.

I will post the usual web updates (daily stats) through Wednesday this week, but after that... who knows. I am on a free trial of GoToMyPC courtesy of my Rush Limbaugh promotional special offer. I am taking my ASUS mini-laptop along (whose value has diminished to the point where I feel comfortable bearing the risk of it being stolen.) I have tested the laptop with GoToMyPC and while clumsy - it works. In fact, I did yesterday's web updates from the comfort of my patio while enjoying a cup of coffee and a scone right after my schvitz. I am going to try to make regular web update from Indy. I don't believe there will be Wi-Fi access where we camp (there wasn't last year), so that means I'll have to drive somewhere to make the updates.

Worst case scenario is that I won't make any updates until I get back Sunday night or Monday. Best case is that you won't notice that I'm gone. The likely scenario is somewhere in between. If there is no Wi-Fi where we camp, I wil certainly not be able to make updates on Sunday morning as it is impossible to drive anywhere in Indianapolis on race day.

As per usual, if something gets f-ed while I'm gone, just default to email and I'll sort it all out when I get home.

Follow the Walks

I've made an interesting discovery. I clicked open Grady Sizemore's Game Log this morning and saw the following:

Sizemore started the season hot but has been in a slump the last couple of weeks. If you look at the chart, you can see exactly what's happening. He hit 4 home runs in the span of eight days from April 16-23, probably thought he was all of the sudden Babe Ruth, and since has been swinging at every pitch he sees. You know that because of the walks. He had 11 walks in the bottom 12 games on the chart and only 4 in the most recent 12 games.

It strikes me that players probably score more points in games they draw walks than in games they don't - that walks are a leading indicator of success. But it doesn't take Einstein to figure that out. That's not unlike saying that players score more points in games they hit home runs than in game they don't. Duh.

So I did a little study to see if I was right. I pulled the game logs for all of the batters so far this year into Excel. I kept the games in which the batter had at least 3 plate appearances. I split them into two piles: games in which the batter had no walks and games in which he had at least one walk. There were 4,523 games in the first pile and 2,342 games in the second pile. Then I averaged the FNFT Points (FP) for each of the two piles of games, except in the "walks" pile I subtracted the number of walks from the point total - I wanted to only consider other plate appearances in those games; the ones where the batter didn't walk.

The "no-walks" group averages 3.43 points per game. They average 4.18 plate appearances per game for a ratio of 0.82 points per plate appearance.

The "walks" group averages 3.67 points per game (again, excluding the points from walks) in 3.25 non-walking plate appearances per game - a ratio of 1.13 points per plate appearance.

So, even eliminating the points from walks, batters score more FNFT points in games they draw walks than in games they don't. In fact, the average number of points per non-walk plate appearance is 38% higher in "walks" games than in "no-walks" games. That's a lot bigger gap than I was expecting.

(Running late - gotta get ready for work...)

Executive Decision

Now that the FNFT roster system is up and running, I have a handful of ideas for enhancements. As I've previously mentioned, I have an idea for a process to post trades. I'd like to show a notice about how many new messages there are since you last checked them. I'd like to enhance the message editor to allow for more formatting, links and what not. In the game logs, I'd like to highlight the FNFT games in bold. All of this stuff.

When I make updates to the system I do so by writing some computer code, posting it (called 'publishing'), then log on to the system and see if it works. Usually it bombs about 15 times before I get it right.

Well if it bombs for me, it's going to bomb for you too if you try to log in. I have also lost some data in the trial and error process (dates of a few of the early messages). Because of this, I have made an executive decision to not make any more changes to the system during the current baseball season. I'll save them all for the off-season and make them when system uptime isn't as important.

That means that I will continue to post trades manually. I'll program the trade posting system in the off-season and perhaps figure out how to make it better.

(Unless, of course, I change my mind.)

Feedback Needed

I've been working on a way to allow all of you to post FNFT trades without my involvement. I can only devote about 20 hours per day or so to FNFT. If someone wants to post a trade during the 4 hours I'm unavailable, there is no way to do so. As another example, I'm going to be heading down to Indy in a couple of weeks for the race. This new system add-on would allow you to post trades while I'm gone. (What are trades, you ask? Well, back in the day...) I'm hoping to get some feedback as to whether you think this would work.

Here's my idea. Trades would still be hammered out the old fashioned way - in person, over the phone, through email, through the message board, etc. Then, once a trade is agreed upon, you can post it to the system. Somewhere on the main roster page there would be a button or link or something that says "Trade Players". If you click it you will get the following screen (with YOUR roster):

(Click on image for a larger view.)

The pull down boxes would show all of the FNFT owners (as shown). There would then be a "Submit" bottom at the bottom to complete the move.

What you are doing here is moving a player or players from your team to some other team - the team you are trading with. The person you are trading with would have to do the same thing as you - log on and transfer the players he is trading to you. Once both players have done this, the trade is complete. Follow that? Both owners would have to do the same thing for the trade to go down.

Is this workable?

There are some obvious drawbacks. The players would move immediately so you might be waiting a bit to get your players if the other guy is slow. The other issue is that like the rest of the system, this will allow you to do things that your not supposed to (like send players to the wrong team) and cause me a lot of headaches to fix. But I think were all good on that. So far I haven't had to fix anything in the database brought on by clumsiness or skulduggery.

I still need to do some programming to do all of the behind the scenes stuff like posting the trades to the transactions table and what not, but I could probably have this up and running sometime next week.

Let me know what you think.

Emailing Joe

I got in fine after you posted the message that the problem was resolved. Prior to that, I was having problems. I believe I did manage to get in once during the period you were diagnosing the problem.

I think Max may have said something to you about an issue we have at work. I’m quite sure were firewalled somehow but I just find this strange. We can gain access to fnftbaseball.com. We can open all links on the page except the LineUp/Pickups. I get an error message stating this web page is currently not available. It’s a conspiracy theory. Someone does not want me picking up players one minute after the first pitch thrown on Tuesday or Friday afternoon games.

Joe

Glad you got in. I’m pretty sure I know the reason you can’t get in from work. The FNFT website itself is hosted by a 3rd party Internet hosting service called HostMonster. I purchased the domain name fnftbaseball.com and that domain is hosted by HostMonster. The roster system however runs off of my home PC. They are really two completely separate websites. The reason you probably can’t access it from work is that my home PC is not set up as a domain name server (DNS). What that means in English is that instead by reaching the site via a normal web address (http://www.something.com) you access it by my computer’s IP address (http://69.29.23.10 or some such thing). The IT departments at many large companies block sites that are referenced only by an IP address because many of them are run by schmucks who are trying to do something much more deviant than run a fantasy baseball league. The solution (perhaps) would be for me to host the roster system on a 3rd party service as well. I’m hesitant to do that because the cheapest one I can find is $169 for the season and there would be no guarantee that your company wouldn’t block that either – that would lend credence to your conspiracy theory. It would also be a bit more cumbersome for me to run everything in that I would always need to be posting all of the files to a different site rather than just copying them to my hard drive. I may do that at some point anyway - it would probably work for you if I did. If I go through another few days like the last few, it would be worth the money to me to have the guaranteed up time that a 3rd party service would provide.

Tief

Game Tuesday

The first Tuesday FNFT game is this week on April 28. In Tuesday games, you are playing against only the teams in your own division.

In the 5-team division, one team goes 4-0, one goes 3-1, one goes 2-2, one goes 1-3, and the last goes 0-4. In the 4-team divisions the top team goes 4-0, the bottom team goes 0-4. The second team goes 3-1 if their score is closer to the top team or 2-2 if their score is closer to the #3 team. The record for the #3 team is the mirror image of the #2 team.

Tuesday games will be played every other Tuesday from here until the end of the season with the final Tuesday game being on the last week of the regular season.

FP Revisited

Most of you will find this to be minutia, but I've slightly changed the formula I use to display "FP" or 'year to date FNFT points'. The FP score is based on the year-to-date cumulative stats rather than summing each players' individual games (which would me much harder to program). Therefore it's an estimate and not an actual sum. The basic formula is the same as our single game scoring formula:

R + H + 2*RBI + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR + BB + SB

The part that FP doesn't take into account is the bonus for getting at least one run, hit and RBI in a game. To account for this I've always added:

min(R,H,RBI)

to the score - or the lowest number among runs, hits and RBIs.

I've dumped all of the game-by-game stats from 2008 into a database and based on this figured out that the formula for FP would be slightly more accurate if I instead added:

0.5 * min(R,H,RBI)

So that's what I've done. If you've noticed that the total points (FP) for some of your hitters has gone down by one or two, that's why.

Like I said - minutia. I'll probably do something similar for pitchers to account for 10K games although that will be a much less noticable adjustment. I'll let you know.

Make The Call

I've gotten a request from Bill Hicks that I send him a list of everyone's phone number. He'd like to "make some deals." I'll leave it up to everyone's own discretion whether you want me to give him your number. He obviously has mine. The telephone is his only lifeline to the league. Imagine if that was you.

I'm not even 100% certain I have everyone's current phone number or the number at which you'd prefer to be called. I've taken phone numbers off of the FNFT directory on the website for security purposes. His phone number if (414) 456-0534 if you'd like to call him and work out a fair (and I'll be watching) trade. He doesn't have an answering machine. Either he or his brother will answer and it's easy to tell who's who.

Drop me an email or comment with you number if you'd like me to forward it on.

I've Gotta Get a Message To You

By popular demand, I've added a simple and crude message board to the FNFT roster system. You'll find it listed on the main menu as "Messages". You have very few formatting options. It's mainly just for text.

You can use it for whatever you want - propose a trade, gossip, jokes, or to leave me a note letting me know how cool you think the new online system is.

Enjoy.

FP

I've made a few small tweaks to the FNFT Roster System. Most notably, the columns for FNFT points and FNFT points per game which used to be abbreviated "FNFT" and "FNFT/G" are now abbreviated "FP" and "FP/G" respectively. It saves a little bit of space. I've also rounded all of the decimal numbers like FP/G and ERA to the same number of decimal places so that they all line up.

Amazing Grace

Before anyone asks, I'll answer.

The grace period for changing you mind on your weekly player pickup is 15 minutes. If you pick up a player and then decide to pick up a different player instead, you have 15 minutes to submit the new pickup (by cutting the player you earlier picked up.)

Today Avery picked up Orlando Hudson and then cut him and picked up Scott Rolen 14 minutes and 16 seconds later.

So he's good.

Rule Change

Unless most of you have an objection, I’d like to make a rule change. I thought of this last year but forgot to bring it up at the draft.

I’d like to rescind the Craig Haralson rule which states that once you cut a player you can not pick him up again for one month.

My recollection is that the rule was written before the dawn of the Internet – back when you waited for your results in the mail. One crafty owner made a habit of effectively having a 24 or 25 man roster by shuffling players on and off of his team before anyone else even knew they were cut. Today, everything is right there. Once a player is cut, everyone knows. The rule was also written before we started limiting pickups to one per game and before we had a 24 hour waiting period before a cut player could be picked up. With these other two rules in place, I really don’t see a whole lot of point in keeping the Haralson rule.

Another argument against the rule is that the FNFT schedule is much more compact than it was back then. Today, one calendar month is almost one fourth of the FNFT schedule. That’s a long wait. Finally, it would let me scratch one thing off of my to-do list since I don’t yet have this programmed yet in the lineup system.

Comments welcome.

Playoffs? Playoffs? Your Talkin' About Playoffs?

As promised at the draft, here is a complete rundown of how the FNFT playoffs will work this year.

WHO'S IN?

First of all, who is in? The three division winners and one wild card team as determined by win-loss record. The wild card team will be the second place team with the best record among all non-division winners.

In the playoffs, the team with the best overall record will be the top seeded playoff team and play the wild card team in the first round in a 4-game playoff. The other two division winners will play each other in a best 3-out-of-5.

TIEBREAKERS

If there are ties in win-loss records at the end of the regular season, the following scenarios will set up a 1-game playoff to be held on the Tuesday following the end of the regular season, August 25th: (Ties will be broken in this order as well)

1. If two or more teams are tied for best record in their division, the 1-game playoff will determine the division champion.
2. If two or more teams are tied for the wild card position, the 1-game playoff will determine the wild card.
3. If two or more teams are tied for best overall record, the 1-game playoff will determine the top seeded playoff team.

Here is an outrageous example of how this works. Suppose the following are the standings at the end of the year:

Division 1
Team A 90-72
Team B 90-72
Team C 90-72

Division 2
Team D 90-72
Team E 90-72

Division 3
Team F 90-72

Teams A, B, and C go into the playoff to determine the Division 1 winner. Teams D and E go in to determine the Division 2 winner. Team F must also go in to determine the top seeded playoff team. And then the playoff will also be used to determine the wild card among the teams not winning their division in Divisions 1 and 2.

Suppose the 1-game playoff goes down like this:

Team A - 96 points
Team D - 84 points
Team B - 62 points
Team C - 58 points
Team E - 42 points
Team F - 16 points

Team A would win Division 1 since they beat Teams B and C in the playoff. Team D would win Division 2 since they beat Team E in the playoff. Team F would win Division 3 since they had the best record in their division - the tie breaker doesn't even matter here. Team B would win the wild card since they had the highest score among non-division winning teams. Team A would be the top seeded playoff team since they won the tiebreaker between themselves and the other two division winners - Teams D and F. Got that? In this scenario, Team A would play Team B in a 4-game playoff and Team D would play Team F in a 5-game playoff.

PLAYOFF FORMAT

In order to win the 4-game playoff, the top seeded team (best overall record) needs to win 2 games, the wild card team needs to win 3 games - whichever comes first. The other playoff series is a traditional best-of-five. The two playoff series winner will meet in a best-of-seven World Series as usual.

Mathematically, if you assume that the chances of either team winning a playoff game are 50/50, the top seeded division winner now has a 68.75% chance of winning their playoff series against the wild card team, rather than a 50% chance if they had played a best-of-five. I still like this rule change. It makes the regular season and having the best overall record a little more meaningful, but not so meaningful as to not give the wild card a chance.

FLEX SCHEDULING

The playoffs this year will use a flexible schedule system. The days on which playoff games would take place are:

Tuesday, August 25
Friday, August 28
Tuesday, September 1
Friday, September 4
Saturday, September 5***
Tuesday, September 8
Friday, September 11
Tuesday, September 15
Friday, September 18
Tuesday, September 22
Friday, September 25
Tuesday, September 29
Friday, October 2

If there is a 1-game playoff, it will be held on Tuesday, August 25. The playoff between the top seeded team and the wild card will start on Friday, August 28. If the teams in the other, best-of-five series do not need to play a 1-game playoff, their series will start on Tuesday, August 25. If they do need a 1-game playoff, their series will start on Friday, August 28 - the same day as the other series. In this case, the series would use Saturday, September 5 if necessary to play Game 4 of their series in the second game of a Friday-Saturday doubleheader. This is the only scenario in which a double header is used in the playoffs.

The World Series will start on the next Friday or Tuesday after the last playoff series ends. The earliest the World Series could possibly start is Friday, September 4. This would happen if there is not a 1-game playoff, the best-of-five playoff series is a 3-0 sweep and the 4-game playoff is a 2-0 sweep by the top seeded team. If the World Series started on Friday, September 4, the earliest it could end would be Tuesday, September 15 if it were a 4-0 sweep.

The latest the World Series could start would be Friday, September 11 (baring a tragedy). The latest if could end if it started on this day would be Friday, October 4 - the last Friday of the MLB regular season.

If you want to keep looking further ahead, the 2010 FNFT Draft will be on Saturday, April 3 - which is also my wife's birthday so you'll have to bring her something.

Sad, Sad News

If you haven't heard this news, a fantasy baseball blog is a grossly impersonal way to find out, however duty requires that I post this. I got a call this morning informing me that Dale Johnson passed away last night - the same night he won his 3rd FNFT Championship.

I don't have many details. He apparently fell ill early last night after walking his dog and called 911. From there, his life was in God's hands.

Dale joined FNFT in 1993. He played every year except for one-year sabbaticals in 1994 and 2004. He will be sorely missed. May he rest in peace.

Millers Maulers FNFT Champs

There's a new modern day king of FNFT - and a new Buffalo Bills. Dale's Millers Maulers have defeated Jake's Wretching Weenergies four games to one to win to the 2008 FNFT World Series. It is Dale's 3rd FNFT crown and second in four years. Jake has now lost three of the last four FNFT Worlds Series.

And oh, by the way, the first ever FNFT wild card team won the FNFT Championship.

Game 5

As the offenses continue to sputter, the FNFT World Series comes down to pitching once again. Dale holds a somewhat comfortable 34-10 lead heading into today's games. He has Chris Young of San Diego pitching tonight against Washington. Jake counters with Scott Kazmir of Tampa Bay who pitches this afternoon at home against Minnesota. Jake obviously needs a good to great game out of Kaznir to keep his World Series hopes alive.

Game 4 Update

Brandon Webb has given up 3 runs so far in the first inning. Dale will win Game 4.

Game 3 Final

Alright. I lied. Actually, I was working instead of blogging tonight.

By my unofficial count, I have it:

Jake - 38 + 7 (D Lee) = 45
Dale - 33 + 9 (Soriano) + 4 (Soto) + 5 (A Ramirez) = 51

It appears that Dale's Cubs did a bit more hitting than Jake's Cub. Dale will win Game 3 and take a 2-1 series lead.

I need to go into work early tomorrow, so I probably won't be able to post an update until tomorrow night.

Game 4 is Tuesday.

What a Mess

Like most of the rest of he country, the FNFT World Series is being turned on its head because of inclement weather.

As of now Jake holds a slim 38-33 lead in Game 3. He still gets points from Derrek Lee who plays tonight against Houston, right here under the roof in Wrigley Field North. Chipper Jones sat out yesterday's double header with a sore back, so he will take a zero.

Dale still gets four hitters from today's games: Geovany Soto, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano, all of the Cubs, and Curtis Granderson of the Tigers. The Tigers rained out a double header yesterday and have another slated for today, but from the looks of the weather forecast it's very iffy as to whether they will get either game in. If the games are rained out again, Dale will take a zero for Granderson.

I'll very likely have live blog updates tonight on the Cubs-Astros game.

Rain 3

This could be the lowest scoring FNFT World Series ever. After a night of many rainouts, Dale has a 25-10 lead going into today's games.

Apparently scared off by recent bad outings, Jake kept Brandon Webb down in his rotation and instead opted for Cole Hamels against the feeble hitting Brewers. Webb posted a 23 on Friday night which will probably go to waste. Hamels is slated to pitch tonight and the weather forecast in Philly look favorable. Jake also gets a relief pitcher and five hitters who were rained out on Friday.

Dale's ace Jake Peavy took the mound on Friday and tallied a sub-par 2 points. A 12 point game by Adrian Gonzalez accounts for most of his lead heading into Saturday. Dale still will get points from four hitters plus his RP.

The Cubs' game against Houston, which affects three of Dale's hitters and one of Jake's, is already postponed today. The teams will play a doubleheader on Sunday, assuming that the power is on at Minute Maid Park and that they've had the roof closed the past couple of days. There is a provision in the FNFT rules to use Sunday games if both Friday and Saturday games are rained out so it appears that Game 3 may not be completely settled until Sunday night.


CNN actually had this picture posted on their homepage this morning - front and center. It continues to amaze me how the lines between the mainstream media and the National Enquirer have blurred.

Game 2 Update

Josh Beckett has scored 15 points in his game tonight against Tampa Bay. That's not enough for Dale to catch Jake. Baring a total meltdown by Joakim Soria or Hong-Chih Kuo, Jake is going to even the Series at one game apiece. Jake leads 45-32. He also still gets his reliever. If neither Soria nor Kuo pitch, it will be 5 points from Matt Capps.

Game 3 is Friday.

Game 1 Deadlock

Sorry for the bit of radio silence the last couple of days. Been busy with the rest of my life.

The 2008 FNFT World Series has started, but Jake and Dale's offenses have not. Jake takes a 14-11 advantage into today's games. Both teams' aces take the mound: Brandon Webb (ARI) for Jake who pitches this afternoon in LA against the Dodgers, and Jake Peavy (SD) for Dale who goes tonight against the Brewers. Also throw relief pitchers into the mix for both teams. Jake would take a -2 from Grant Balfour unless Joakim Soria (KC) pitches tonight.

Game 5

The fat lady isn't singing, but she's on stage and ready to go. Jake taken a 75-42 lead after Tuesday night's games.

Connor still gets his starting pitcher Edwin Jackson of Tampa Bay. Jackson (11-8, 3.81) is at home tonight against the Yankees. He also gets hitters Kevin Youkolis and Carlos Quentin and a reliefe pitcher; either Joe Nathan (MIN), Francisco Cordero (CIN), or Seth McClung (MIL). Youkolis was scratched from last night's game with back spasms and is listed as questionable for tonight. Quentin sat out last night due to a sore left forearm and is also listed as questionable tonight.

Jake would still get points for Chritian Guzman and Chipper Jones. Guzman was given a routine night off on Tuesday and is expected back in the lineup tonight. Jones however was scratched from last night's game with a sore knee and Manager Bobby Cox has already said that he will not play on Wednesday.

33 points is the difference. Barring a gem by Edwin Jackson, Jake will be going on to his third World Series in the last four years and would play a rematch of the 2005 Series against Dale.

Game 4 live update

Brandon Webb gave up 4 runs in the first inning. Through 2 innings pitched he is at -9 points with a pitch count of 48. Even if he strikes out every batter from here on and the D-Backs come back and win, Webb will fall one point short. Connor is going to win Game 4 and force a deciding Game 5 on Tuesday.

Connor's second baseman Jeff Kent is sitting out with a sore knee. Apparently Connor is trying to collect all of the injured second basemen in the Majors.

Game 4 Gems

Roy Halliday was good, but Jake Peavy was better. Peavy scored 32 points by my unofficial count, including 13 strikeouts, easily covering Halliday's 16. Gerry added only two more points by Trevor Hoffman making the final score 60-45 and giving Dale a historic victory in the first FNFT playoff, three games to one. Dale will advance to the FNFT World Series; his third appearance in the last six seasons.

In the other game, Armando Galarraga posted a respectable 15 points for Connor. He also gets 8 from Francisco Cordero bringing his current game total to 69. Kevin Youkalis sat for the second straight day (don't know why). Connor also gets points from Jeff Kent tonight. Jake sits at 49 going into tonight's game with Brandon Webb on the hill. Connor wins a tie breaker on Jayson Werth's 21, meaning that Webb must outscore Kent by 21 in order for Jake to win the game and the series. If not, Connor will force a fifth and deciding game on Tuesday.

I'll probably post live updates tonight.

Game 4 Update

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

That's what Game 4 of the FNFT playoffs will come down to on Sunday as both playoff games are virtually deadlocked.

Jake leads Connor 49-46 going into today's action. Jake has his ace Brandon Webb on the mound. Webb is coming off one of his poorest outings of the year (-6); one that cost Jake a chance for a win in Game 2. Jake also gets a reliever; either Joakim Soria (KC) or Grant Balfour (TB). As an interesting sidenote, Jake cut Houston Street right before Game 4. Street scored 13 points on Saturday and Jake would have gotten those points if Soria and Balfour don't pitch. Connor counters with Armando Galarraga of Detroit. A mismatch on paper, but this game isn't played on a computer chip. Connor also gets a reliever; Jo Nathan (MIN) if he pitches, otherwise 8 points from Francisco Cordero, and hitting points from Kevin Youkalis and Jeff Kent.

In the other game Dale leads Gerry 28-27. Gerry gets Roy Halladay (TOR) and Dale gets Jake Peavy (SD) in today's games. Each team also gets a reliever - Wood (CHC), Hoffman (SD), or Kobayashi (CLE) for Gerry and Paperlbon (BOS), Wheeler (TB) or Gonzalez (ATL) for Dale. Both teams' hitters all played on Saturday - none scoring more than 7 points.

Game 3 Final

Game 3 of the FNFT playoffs is in the books. Jake and Dale each go up two games to one.

Jake took a 57-42 decision over Connor behind a 20 point game from Scott Kazmir and a balanced offensive attack. Dale easily defeated Gerry 70-53 behind 20 points from Francisco Liriano.

Game 3 Update

It appears that Jake will win Game 3 in the FNFT West Regional playoff. He leads Connor 53-47. Each still gets a relief pitcher. Connor gets Joe Nathan if he pitches or if not gets 1 point from Francisco Cordero. Jake gets Joakin Soria (KC), Grant Balfour (TB), or Houston Street (OAK) in that order. Connor also gets Ray Durham who did not play last night. Durham has been sitting out with a sore shoulder. Connor would be wise to pick up a new second baseman for Game 4.

In the other series, Gerry leads 53-40 after Friday night's action. However Dale still gets his starting pitcher Jake Peavy, a reliever (either Pappelbon [BOS], Weeler [TB], or Gonzalez [ATL]), and his catcher Geovany Soto who was given a routine night off on Friday. Gerry also gets a reliever - Wood (CHC), Hoffman (SD), or Kobayashi (CLE).

A reminder to all involved that Game 4 is tonight. You are free to turn in a seperate lineup and make a separate pickup for today's game.

Beckett Scratched

Dale's likely Game 3 starter, Josh Beckett has been scratched from his start Friday night.

Game 3 Preview

Game 2 is in the books and both series are tied at one game each. It's a best of 3 now starting with a doubleheader this weekend. Once again, here are the rules:

The pitching order for Friday's game goes SP1 through SP6 on Friday, then SP1 through SP6 on Saturday. The only way you get a pitcher from Saturday is if none of the starting pitchers in your lineup pitch on Friday. Relievers go the same way.

The Saturday game (Game 4) works like an other normal FNFT game using Saturday and Sunday games as necessary. The only catch is that you can't use opints from a player that you used in the Friday game.

Here are the projected starters this weekend according to CBS Sportsline: (*** - Likely pitcher for Game 3, **** - Likely pitcher for Game 4

Connor - MONONA MERCENARIES
6618 S1 Ben Sheets Mil - Mon
7180 S2 Rich Harden ChC - FRI***
8140 S3 Armando Galarraga Det - SUN****
4288 S4 Randy Johnson Ari - Mon
7241 S5 Edwin Jackson TB - Thur
7108 S6 Seth McClung Mil - Bullpen

Jake - WRETCHING WEENERGIES
7121 S1 Brandon Webb Ari - SUN****
7509 S2 Cole Hamels Phi - Thur
4715 S3 Mike Mussina NYY - Thur
7292 S4 Scott Kazmir TB - FRI***
7808 S5 John Danks ChW - Mon
7823 S6 Matt Garza TB - Tue

Gerry - MURFIRSTERS
6559 S1 Carlos Zambrano ChC - SUN****
6134 S2 Roy Halladay Tor - SUN
6006 S3 Ryan Dempster ChC - Thur
7547 S4 Ervin Santana LAA - FRI***
7621 S5 Joe Saunders LAA - Tue
6767 S6 Justin Duchscherer Oak - DL

Dale - MILLER'S MAULERS
6872 S1 Jake Peavy SD - SAT****
6403 S2 Josh Beckett Bos - FRI***
7504 S3 Francisco Liriano Min - SAT
8091 S4 Jair Jurrjens Atl - SUN
8109 S5 Chris Volstad Fla - FRI
6276 S6 Brad Penny LAD - DL

Game 2

Unless Jim Thome scores at least 11 points tonight (which he is obviously capable of doing), both playoff series will be tied at one game apiece. Connor bounced back with a win behind Ben Sheets' 19 points. Brandon Webb stuck Jake with a -6. Dale got 28 from Geovany Soto helping him cover a -10 by his starting pitcher Jair Jurrens.

I'll have more tonight. I'll also get the website up to date. And get caught up on the Junior league. And start getting ready for the fantasy football draft. And pay a bunch of bills that have been sitting on my desk. And do my laundry.

GAME 1

I'm back.

The lack of communication over the weekend was due much more to a lack of time than a lack of connectivity, although the latter played a bit of a role. In the limited time I had online, my connection dropped a couple of times, and once right as I was about to post a message saying that I didn't have time for any updates.

Anyway... Game 1 is in the books. Gerry and Jake go up 1 - 0. Jake takes a close 57-52 contest over Connor behind a 21 point game by Cole Hamels, and home runs from Derrick Lee and Mark DeRosa. Gerry easily beats Dale 65-32. A solid performance by Ryan Dempster along with a balanced offense were more than enough to cover Dale's weak showing.

Game 2 is Tuesday.

Playoff Game 1 Preview

HOLEY MAN. It appears that Gerry has lost his second baseman Ian Kinsler for the season with a sports hernia. Kinsler went on the DL today and it appears he will have surgery. Gerry has no backup on his bench so he will be shopping.

Meanwhile, Connor's second baseman Kaz Matsui has also been placed on the DL with a weak back (that he got about a week back). His backup second baseman Orlando Hudson is already on the 60-day DL.

The free agent race is on. Top candidates as I see it:

Akinori Iwamura (TB)
Red Kent Hairs (LAD)
Freddy Sanchez (PIT)

There's a couple others too if you look. Don't forget about Ray Durham (MIL).

It appears that the Game 1 pitching matchups will be:

Gerry - Roy Halliday (TOR) vs. BOS (Byrd) on Friday
Dale - Josh Becket (BOS) @ TOR (Marcum) on Saturday

Jake - Cole Hamels (PHI) vs. LAD (Stults) on Saturday
Connor - Randy Johnson (ARI) vs. FLA (Sanchez) on Friday or Edwin Jackson (TB) @ CWS (Danks) on Friday

Updates for Game 1 will be spotty at best. I'll try to post updates here in the blog from the road, but I've got a very busy schedule.

Playoffs Set

John Lannan, the pitcher I picked up for Tom while he was on vacation, turned out to be the poison pill that knocked him out of the FNFT playoffs. Actually, Lannan would have needed a 22 point game (rather than his -15) for Tom to have gone 6-0 and set up a 1-game playoff. Connor's 62 point game clinched him a 5-1 record for the week and more or less iced it for him.

So, the playoffs are set.

In the East Regional it will be:

Gerry - MURFIRSTERS (98-64, 1719 pts)
vs.
Dale - MILLER'S MAULERS (91-71, 1622)

And in the West Regional it will be:

Jake - WRETCHING WEENERGIES (96-66, 1657)
vs.
Connor - MONONA MERCENARIES (91-71, 1645)

Connor has already gotten in some trash talk I see. I'm not sure if that's too wise. Dad's a grizzled vet of FNFT who is only a season removed from stinging back-to-back, 7-game World Series losses. I'm sure he is hungry to get back there for another shot. If he does, it will be the first time that an FNFT owner has taken his team to the Series in 3 out of 4 years since the reign of King Avery - back in the stone ages.

Gerry has drawn for his playoff opponent the only team in the FNFT that has as many Cubs players as he does. Dale and Gerry go into the playoffs with 4 Cubs each. These will be pretty easy games to keep track of.

The top four teams in total team points were the four to make the playoffs. It seems that the 3-division format worked fairly well.

The playoffs start with a single game this coming Friday, August 22. I will be out of town for that game but will do my best to post updates here in the FNFT Blog. Game 2 will be Tuesday, August 26.

Good luck to the four playoff teams. It was an enjoyable regular season.

Saturday Morning

TEAM	PTS	SP	RP	H	H	Record
Jake	75			Ortiz		6-0
Tom	54	Lannan				5-1
Dale	50		Papelbon	ARamirez		5-1
Joe	45		Wagner	Bay		4-2
Connor	44	Jackson	Nathan	Youkilis	Matsui	4-2
John	43			Escobar	Rolen	3-3
Gerry	30			Rios		3-3
Tief	28		Lyon			3-3
Max	23	Grienke	Putz	Braun	Drew	2-4
Avery	23	Harang	Valverde	Joyce		2-4
Bill	23			Pudge	Pedroia	1-5
Jacob	15	Sanchez	Jenks	Ellsbury	Overbay	1-5
Joel	14	Lackey	FRod	Lee	Rowand	0-6

It appears almost 100% certain that Jake has clinched the McNamee Division. Dale needed to beat him by 3 games to tie. No way that's going to happen.

Despite that, Dale is very well positioned to take the wild card. All of the wild card contenders (Dale, Tom, Connor, and Joe) are at the top of the scoring right now, which means they would all finish with similar records. Dale had a 2-game lead coming in, so it would take some teams from the bottom to sneak up and mess things up. Could happen, but not real likely.

The race for the Mitchell Division between Tom and Connor is still wide open. Tom is ahead by 10, but they each still get their starting pitchers, and Connor gets a reliever and two hitters (although his 2B Matsui has missed the last three games with a weak back that he got about a week back). The keys are the starting pitchers. For Tom, John Lannan (WAS) pitches tonight at home against Colorado, and for Connor, Edwin Jackson (TB) pitches tonight at Texas. There is still a strong possibility of a 1-game playoff. That game would be Tuesday night.

All of this analysis of course comes with the disclaimer that anything could still happen. But in following these games for 22 years, I know it rarely does.

Final Friday

8:00pm

If anyone is sitting up charting MLB games tonight... (GAL)

I've posted the projected starting pitchers in the Game 30 boxscore on the website. So far Joe, who's trying to sneak in the back door of the playoffs, has 14 out of Cliff Lee. Pettite (Bill) is just underway in New York after a rain delay. Zambrano (Gerry) is getting kicked around by the Marlins - 5 runs in the first 5 innings. Webb (Jake) has given up an early run. Maddux (John) and Parra (Tief) play later tonight.

On offense, Tom's new pickup Melvin Mora, DeRosa (Jake) and Cantu (Joe) have homered.

8:30pm

Good news for Dale. Toronto and Boston have been postponed, pushing Josh Beckett back to Sunday. That means Dale's starter will be Francisco Liriano who is pitching tonight and has given up 2 unearned runs on only 1 hit through 4 innings.

9:00pm

Cliff Lee goes the distance for Joe - 27 by my count. But Liriano is pitching a good game for Dale - one of the teams Joe must catch to sneak into the wild card spot. Brandon Webb is also throwing a very good game for Jake. It looks like Joe will need a lot of help despite Lee's gem.

Cubs won a game they should have lost. Cards win too.

10:10

Dale and Jake's pitchers have more or less matched Joe's. Jake got 25 out of Brandon Webb and Dale got 23 out of Liriano. It would seem that both Jake and Dale have solidified their spot in the playoffs, leaving Connor and Tom to battle for the final spot.

10:30

I just did a quick hand count of hitter's points and Dale and Joe are very close. That's not good for Joe as he needs to beat Dale by 3 games. They each still have a couple of players to get. Jake has a pretty nice pile of offense including 2 home runs. It would appear that he has enough to beat Dale and therefore win his division.

Done for tonight - I'll post prelims tomorrow morning. Watch here for further updates.

???

I found this picture on a baseball blog I read. I'll let you draw your own conclusions...

Playoff Doubleheader Rules

Some of you have been around long enough to remember doubleheaders in the FNFT. If you are, these rules are pretty much like they used to be back then.

Game 1 of the playoffs is Friday, August 22. Game 2 of the playoffs is Saturday, August 23. For the most part, these are treated as two separate and distinct games. You may submit separate lineups for each. You are allowed one pickup for each. The deadline for picking up players and submitting lineups is still on noon of game day, so you could (and in some circumstances, it would make sense to) change your Saturday lineup based on Friday results.

Hitters are fairly straight forward. Their Friday night game counts toward Game 1 and their Saturday game counts toward Game 2. The exception is if they don't play on Friday night. Then their Saturday game counts toward Game 1 and their Sunday game counts toward Game 2. This is an important point to be aware of. If one of your hitters does not play on Friday night, it might make sense to replace him in your Game 2 lineup, or else run the risk of not getting points for him for Game 2. If a hitter plays on Friday and not on Saturday, or if his Saturday game is used for Game 1 on Friday, you still get his Sunday stats toward Game 2.

For starting pitchers, the pecking order for Game 1 is #1 SP on Friday, #2 SP on Friday, #3 SP on Friday and so on down to the bottom of your rotation, then #1 SP on Saturday, #2 SP on Saturday, and on down the line. So basically, if any of your starting pitchers pitch on Friday night, you will get one of them for Game 1. Game 2 works like any other game with the exception that you can not use the pitcher who counted in Game 1. The order goes #1 SP Friday, #1 SP Saturday, #2 SP Friday, #2 SP Saturday, and so on. Relief pitchers work pretty much the same way as starters. It would be a good idea to just figure out who you want your starting pitcher for each game to be and put them in as your #1 starter. You can stack the others up behind him just in case.

Once we get past the doubleheader, everything goes as normal from there. The first round of playoffs is best 3 out of 5. The World Series is best 4 out of 7.

I will do real-time blogging through the playoffs and World Series to the extent that I can. As I mentioned, I will be out of town during the first weekend of the playoffs - returning on Monday.

Pennant Race, Playoffs

Alright - the much hyped FNFT pennant race hasn't really turned into the blockbuster I had promised. Still, going into the final week of the season there are six teams with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs. That's more than we've ever had.

Just so everyone is clear on how this goes, the division winner with the best record (probably Gerry) will play the wild card team in the first round of the playoffs. The other two division winners play each other. The first round of the playoffs is a best 3 out of 5, starting Friday, August 22.

Here's a rundown of the six remaining teams and what must happen for them to get in:

Gerry has clinched the Clemens Division and is the only team to have clinched a playoff spot so far. He will finish with the best overall record with any combination of two wins or two losses by Jake on Friday. If Gerry and Jake tie with the best record, Gerry wins a head-to-head tiebreaker based on total points scored unless Jake would somehow outscore him by 93 points.

Jake's magic number to clinch the McNamee Division is four - any combination of four wins or four losses by Dale and he wins the division. Even if Dale catches Jake for the division title, Jake has very good shot at the wild card, currently being five games ahead of Tom, his next closest competitor for that spot (although in this scenario, Jake will have had a bad week so it's not as done a deal as it may seem.) If Jake and Dale tie for best record in the division, most likely Dale will overtake him in total points and would win the division title based on that tiebreaker if Jake winds up being the wild card.

Connor leads the Mitchell Division by 1 game over Tom. His magic number to clinch is 6. If he and Tom tie, they would most likely need to play a 1-game playoff to determine the division champ, unless Dale fell out of the wild card spot and the other of them got in.

Dale's magic number to clinch a wild card spot is 6 over Connor, 5 over Tom and 4 over Joe. Only one of Connor and Tom matter as the other will win their division, so Dale must beat out two of those three teams to clinch a playoff spot.

Tom's best chance for the playoffs is beating Connor for the division title. His magic number to do so is eight.

Joe has the most hurdles to jump if he is to make the playoffs. He must catch both Dale and Tom (or Connor) to grab the wild card spot. He can not win his division.

John, in the mean time, has the best record in the FNFT since week six. The trouble is he started the season 2-20. Remember what I've said about how the teams in the lead after game 5 tend to hold those leads all season? After Game 5 this year, Tom led the Mithcell Division, Gerry led the Clemens Division, and Jake and Dale were tied for the lead in the McNamee Division. Only Connor, who was 9 games back in last place has bucked that trend. The first 5 games of the FNFT season are absolutely critical for if you are to have a successful season.

Here's a bizarre scenario - Dale and Jake tie for best record in the McNamee Division, and also tie with Tom or Connor for the wild card spot. This would set up a 1-game playoff on Tuesday 8/19 between the three teams, with the top two going to the playoffs. See? This is all still pretty good afterall.

Finally, a bit of incredibly horrible timing. The FNFT playoffs start on Friday August 22. The second game is Saturday August 23 and will have special double-header rules (which I'll fully explain here in this blog.) Well... I'm going to be out of town that weekend. I will have my Asus laptop with me. Despite its puny keyboard, I will be able to blog and email, but I will not have access to my Excel files. So, my game plan is to do the scoring by hand and report the results in this blog. Then, when I get back on Monday, I'll do a full update. Max, Sandi, and Laura - you'll just have to deal with that. I've got an important job to do. Just eat another kringle or something while you wait.

Too Little, Too Late

If you exclude the first five game of the season, John would be leading his division.

CLEMENS			W	L	Pct	GB
John			66	52	.559	--
Gerry			65	53	.551	1
Joe			59	59	.500	7
Joel			50	68	.424	16

Playoff Matchups

I know that at the draft I floated my proposal for the team with the highest record getting to choose their playoff opponent. My recollection is that you all though I was nuts.

So, the rule will be that in the playoffs, the team with the best record - probably Gerry - will play the wild card team, which right now could be any one of four or five teams. The other two division winners will then play each other. If there is a tie for playoff position (like if two division winners finish with the same record) it will be broken by total team points. Any ties involving teams making the playoffs or not will still be decided with a one-game playoff.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

I updated the FNFT Pitching Report. Here are some interesting, yet predictable findings. The correlation between team pitching and wins is almost double that between team hitting and wins.

	Wins	Hitting	Pitching	RkW	RkH	RkP
Gerry	90	1063	519	1	1	1
Jake	85	1034	501	2	3	4
Dale	83	968	497	3	6	5
Joe	79	833	513	4	13	2
Connor	79	949	506	4	9	3
Tom	78	1014	369	6	4	9
Tief	73	953	383	7	8	8
John	71	961	435	8	7	6
Avery	69	1042	358	9	2	11
Max	66	998	328	10	5	12
Jacob	62	913	319	11	11	13
Joel	59	874	402	12	12	7
Bill	55	930	366	13	10	10
Correlation		45%	78%

Games by Position Again

I've got eligible positions posted in the regular MLB batting stats. Putting them in our FNFT boxscores will be a next year thing - unless i decide to spend the hour or so I think it will take to update all of my formulas.

Muli-Position Players

Player	TM	ePos
Amezaga, Alfredo	FLA	3SO
Anderson, Marlon	NYM	1O
Aurilia, Rich	SF	13
Aviles, Mike	KC	2S
Aybar, Willy	TB	13
Baker, Jeff	COL	123
Barajas, Rod	TOR	C1
Barmes, Clint	COL	23S
Belliard, Ron	WAS	123
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	13S
Blake, Casey	CLE	13
Bloomquist, Will	SEA	2SO
Boone, Aaron	WAS	13
Botts, Jason	TEX	1O
Bowker, John	SF	1O
Bruntlett, Eric	PHI	2SO
Burke, Chris	ARI	123O
Burriss, Manny	SF	2S
Buscher, Brian	MIN	13
Cabrera, Asdrubal	CLE	2S
Cabrera, Miguel	DET	13
Cairo, Miguel	SEA	13
Callaspo, Alberto	KC	2SO
Cantu, Jorge	FLA	13
Carroll, Jamey	CLE	23
Castillo, Jose	SF	3S
Casto, Kory	WAS	3O
Catalanotto, Frank	TEX	1O
Cedeno, Ronny	CHC	23S
Cintron, Alex	BAL	3S
Counsell, Craig	MIL	23S
Crabbe, Callix	MIL	2SO
DeRosa, Mark	CHC	23O
Dillon, Joe	MIL	12
Dobbs, Greg	PHI	3O
Duncan, Chris	STL	1O
Duncan, Shelley	NYY	1O
Duran, German	TEX	23O
Easley, Damion	NYM	12SO
Ensberg, Morgan	CLE	13
Erstad, Darin	HOU	1O
Figgins, Chone	ANA	23
Freel, Ryan	CIN	23O
German, Esteban	KC	2SO
Glaus, Troy	STL	13
Gload, Ross	KC	1O
Gomez, Chris	PIT	23S
Gonzalez, Alberto	NYY	23S
Gonzalez, Edgar	SD	23O
Gotay, Ruben	NYM	23
Guillen, Carlos	DET	13
Hairston, Jerry	CIN	2SO
Hall, Bill	MIL	23
Hannahan, Jack	OAK	13
Harris, Brendan	MIN	2S
Harris, Willie	WAS	23O
Headley, Chase	SD	3O
Helms, Wes	FLA	13
Hernandez, Luis	BAL	2S
Hinske, Eric	TB	13O
Hoffpauir, Micah	CHC	1O
Hu, Chin-Lung	LA	2S
Huff, Aubrey	BAL	13
Infante, Omar	ATL	23SO
Inge, Brandon	DET	C3O
Inglett, Joe	TOR	23O
Izturis, Cesar	STL	3S
Izturis, Maicer	ANA	2S
Jackson, Conor	ARI	1O
Keppinger, Jeff	CIN	3S
Lamb, Mike	MIN	13
Lopez, Felipe	WAS	2O
Loretta, Mark	HOU	23S
Lowrie, Jed	BOS	23S
Martin, Russell	LA	C3
Martinez, Victor	CLE	C1
Mather, Joe	STL	1O
Maza, Luis	LA	2S
McDonald, John	TOR	3S
Mientkiewicz, Doug	PIT	13O
Miles, Aaron	STL	23S
Murphy, Donnie	OAK	23
Norton, Greg	ATL	1O
Ojeda, Augie	ARI	23S
Ortmeier, Dan	SF	1O
Ozuna, Pablo	CHW	23
Petit, Gregorio	OAK	2S
Posada, Jorge	NYY	C1
Prado, Martin	ATL	23
Punto, Nick	MIN	3S
Quinlan, Robb	ANA	13
Quintanilla, Omar	COL	2S
Raburn, Ryan	DET	23O
Ramirez, Alexei	CHW	2SO
Rivas, Luis	PIT	2S
Ryan, Brendan	STL	23S
Santiago, Ramon	DET	2S
Scutaro, Marcos	TOR	123SO
Stewart, Ian	COL	23
Swisher, Nick	CHW	1O
Teahen, Mark	KC	1O
Thames, Marcus	DET	1O
Tolbert, Matt	MIN	23S
Valentin, Javier	CIN	C3
Vazquez, Ramon	TEX	3S
Velez, Eugenio	SF	2O
Wilkerson, Brad	TOR	1O
Wood, Brandon	ANA	3S
Youkilis, Kevin	BOS	13
Young, Delwyn	LA	2O

Vacation

I'm going to leave you guys pretty much on your own this week. Website updates will be rare if any. I'm leaving later this week on my annual excursion down to Indy to watch Danica race. I've also got this to deal with before I go:


I'll be back on Monday and try to update everything then.

Power Shift

As of today, the top 8 hitters in FNFT points and 12 of the top 15 play in the National League.

Another Racing Hottie

Danica Patrick vs. Ashley Force

Duplicate Players

I have finally figured out how to tell Excel to flag me when I have duplicate players on a roster. That problem should be fixed from here on. Thank you for your patience.

More on Games by Position

STATS finally got back to me on adding games played by position to their stats. They said that they are working on an email delivery system now and that games by position is next on the list. They expect to add it "this season". Great. Thanks for nailing it down.

I found a website from which I can download games by position and fairly easily create the table below. This is a table of all of the hitters in the Majors who are FNFT eligible at more than one field position.

At this point I don't have an easy way to incorporate this into our weekly boxscores, and I'm not going to go through the effort to do that because once I finish, STATS will have them. So here you are - I'll try to post this here in the blog every so often.

Name	Tm	ePOS
Amezaga, Alfredo	FLA	3O
Aurilia, Rich	SF	13
Baker, Jeff	COL	12
Barmes, Clint	COL	2S3
Blake, Casey	CLE	13
Botts, Jason	TEX	1O
Bowker, John	SF	1O
Cabrera, Asdrubal	CLE	2S
Cabrera, Miguel	DET	13
Callaspo, Alberto	KC	2S
Cantu, Jorge	FLA	13
Carroll, Jamey	CLE	23
Cedeno, Ronny	CHC	2S
Counsell, Craig	MIL	S3
Crabbe, Callix	SD	2O
DeRosa, Mark	CHC	23O
Easley, Damion	NYM	2S
Ensberg, Morgan	NYY	13
Erstad, Darin	HOU	1O
Figgins, Chone	ANA	23
Gomez, Chris	PIT	23
Gonzalez, Alberto	NYY	S3
Hinske, Eric	TB	13O
Inge, Brandon	DET	C3O
Inglett, Joe	TOR	3O
Izturis, Maicer	ANA	2S
Lopez, Felipe	WAS	2O
Loretta, Mark	HOU	23
McDonald, John	TOR	S3
Mientkiewicz, Doug	PIT	13
Miles, Aaron	STL	2S
Ortmeier, Dan	SF	1O
Ozuna, Pablo	CHW	23
Prado, Martin	ATL	23
Punto, Nick	MIN	S3
Raburn, Ryan	DET	2O
Ramirez, Alexei	CHW	2O
Rivas, Luis	PIT	2S
Swisher, Nick	CHW	1O
Thames, Marcus	DET	1O
Tolbert, Matt	MIN	2S3
Vazquez, Ramon	TEX	S3
Velez, Eugenio	SF	2O
Youkilis, Kevin	BOS	13