Baring a miracle pitching performance by the Dodger's Charlie Heager, Jake will win Game 2 of the FNFT Wild Card Playoff and advance to his 4th World Series in 5 years. Jake leads 78-47. Tom can only get points from Haeger who pitches this afternoon in Cincinnati, and a relief pitcher - either Joakim Soria or Rafael Soriano. Jake still has two hitters not yet on the board - Ben Zobrist and Mike Lowell. Tom needs Haeger and his reliever to outscore Zobrist and Lowell by 31 points. Kendry Morales had an impressive 29 point (5 2 5 6 22HH) game for Tom.
In Divisional Playoff, Avery will go up 1-0 with a 66-39 victory over Joe. King Felix scored 19 for the victors, pacing a balanced attack. Game 2 of the series will be Tuesday, Sep 1.
Because of the 1-game playoff necessary to decide the Lachmann Division, the Divisional Playoff between Avery and Joe will have a double-header game next weekend. I'll write a separate post on how the rules work for that and how the lineup system should be used.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Josh Johnson Update
6:40pm
Tom trails Jake by 19 points going into tonight's action and needs 1 more than that from Josh Johnson (baring relief pitchers) to win the first game of the Wild Card Playoff. It's not a good start. Johnson has given up 2 runs on 4 hits through 2 innings (-2 points).
6:50pm
Kansas City's game is over and Joakim Soria did not pitch. That means Tom gets 6 points from his RP2 Raphael Soriano. Jake Would get Mariano Rivera if he pitches - otherwise 6 from Jason Frasor. Tom would need Rivera to pitch and pitch poorly to help his cause. Both team's hitters all played last night so Rivera and Johnson are the only two players in play.
6:55pm
Adam Jones is out of the lineup again tonight with back spasms so Joe will not pad his 80 points. Jones is expected back in the lineup this weekend. (Just doing some housecleaning here.)
7:00pm
0 R, 1 H, 1 K in the 3rd for Johnson. 0 points through 3 innings. If he struck out the side in each of the next three innings, he would only be at 18 points. Things are not looking good for Tom.
7:25pm
0 R, 2 H, 2 K in the 4th for Johnson. He's at 3 points for the game and could get 4 more for getting a win (the game is tied 2-2.) He's only at 58 pitches through 4, but he needs to pick it up if Tom is to have a chance.
7:40pm
A scoreless, two K frame for Johnson in the 5th. He's now at 9 points for the game. A couple more solid innings and a few Marlin runs could make this interesting.
7:45pm
Ronnie Paulino has hit a 2 run HR for the Marlins putting them up 2 and putting Johnson in line for the win.
7:50pm
Yankees are up 4-1 in the 6th. If that score holds, it's likely Mariano Rivera would pitch. Once he enters the game it take 6 points off the board for Jake.
Johnson has given up a leadoff double to David Murphy and then threw a wild pitch allowing him to go to third. Watching the pitch-tracker, he looks wild.
Sac fly - Murphy scores.
8:00pm
1 R, 2 H, 2 K for Johnson in the 6th. He's at 10 points for the game and could still pick up 4 more iwht a win. He's not due up to bat in the next couple of innings and at 93 pitches, he'll probably be back out for the 7th.
8:25pm
(Fantasy football auction list that everyone has been bitching about is finally sent.) Johnson is out after 6 innings. 10 points and still in line for the win which would bring him to 14. If Mariano Rivera pitches, Jake loses 6 which would tie him with Tom. Jake wins the tiebreaker, so the only hope for Tom is for Rivera to have a negative points game.
Right now, the Yankees are up 9-2 in the 8th. I'm thinking Rivera will sit this one out.
8:55pm
No Rivera - no win for Tom. Jake is one win away from his 4th FNFT World Series in 5 years.
Tom trails Jake by 19 points going into tonight's action and needs 1 more than that from Josh Johnson (baring relief pitchers) to win the first game of the Wild Card Playoff. It's not a good start. Johnson has given up 2 runs on 4 hits through 2 innings (-2 points).
6:50pm
Kansas City's game is over and Joakim Soria did not pitch. That means Tom gets 6 points from his RP2 Raphael Soriano. Jake Would get Mariano Rivera if he pitches - otherwise 6 from Jason Frasor. Tom would need Rivera to pitch and pitch poorly to help his cause. Both team's hitters all played last night so Rivera and Johnson are the only two players in play.
6:55pm
Adam Jones is out of the lineup again tonight with back spasms so Joe will not pad his 80 points. Jones is expected back in the lineup this weekend. (Just doing some housecleaning here.)
7:00pm
0 R, 1 H, 1 K in the 3rd for Johnson. 0 points through 3 innings. If he struck out the side in each of the next three innings, he would only be at 18 points. Things are not looking good for Tom.
7:25pm
0 R, 2 H, 2 K in the 4th for Johnson. He's at 3 points for the game and could get 4 more for getting a win (the game is tied 2-2.) He's only at 58 pitches through 4, but he needs to pick it up if Tom is to have a chance.
7:40pm
A scoreless, two K frame for Johnson in the 5th. He's now at 9 points for the game. A couple more solid innings and a few Marlin runs could make this interesting.
7:45pm
Ronnie Paulino has hit a 2 run HR for the Marlins putting them up 2 and putting Johnson in line for the win.
7:50pm
Yankees are up 4-1 in the 6th. If that score holds, it's likely Mariano Rivera would pitch. Once he enters the game it take 6 points off the board for Jake.
Johnson has given up a leadoff double to David Murphy and then threw a wild pitch allowing him to go to third. Watching the pitch-tracker, he looks wild.
Sac fly - Murphy scores.
8:00pm
1 R, 2 H, 2 K for Johnson in the 6th. He's at 10 points for the game and could still pick up 4 more iwht a win. He's not due up to bat in the next couple of innings and at 93 pitches, he'll probably be back out for the 7th.
8:25pm
(Fantasy football auction list that everyone has been bitching about is finally sent.) Johnson is out after 6 innings. 10 points and still in line for the win which would bring him to 14. If Mariano Rivera pitches, Jake loses 6 which would tie him with Tom. Jake wins the tiebreaker, so the only hope for Tom is for Rivera to have a negative points game.
Right now, the Yankees are up 9-2 in the 8th. I'm thinking Rivera will sit this one out.
8:55pm
No Rivera - no win for Tom. Jake is one win away from his 4th FNFT World Series in 5 years.
Zack Attack
Behind a 15 strikoout performance by Zach Grienke, Joe's Zambi's Bombers have won the one game playoff over John's The Moors 80-50 and will advance to play Avery in the FNFT Division Playoff.
Game 1 of the Wild Card playoff is comes down to Josh Johnson pitching tonight for Florida. Jake leads Tom 58-39. Each team could still get points from their #1 reliever - Mariano Rivera for Jake and Joakim Soria for Tom. Both teams have a 6 point outting by their #2 relievers to fall back on. Johnson (12-3, 2.99) pitches at home tonight against the Mets.
Game 1 of the Wild Card playoff is comes down to Josh Johnson pitching tonight for Florida. Jake leads Tom 58-39. Each team could still get points from their #1 reliever - Mariano Rivera for Jake and Joakim Soria for Tom. Both teams have a 6 point outting by their #2 relievers to fall back on. Johnson (12-3, 2.99) pitches at home tonight against the Mets.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
TIE!
It's official. We have the first ever tie for an FNFT playoff position. By a C-hair, Joe was able to hang on to a 1-5 record for the week and force a 1-game playoff with John.
Chris Carpenter's 25 point game vaulted Tom ahead of Joe and knocked him back to a tie with Tief at 29 points. Both of their top hitters had 12, so it went to the second tiebreaker where Javier Vazquez' 5 topped A.J. Burnett's -11.
The 1-game playoff will be this Tuesday, August 25. The other playoff series between Jake and Tom will also start that day. Avery must await the winner of Tuesday's game. The Division Playoff Series will now start Friday, August 28 and will need to use a double-header game on Saturday, September 6 to accommodate the full playoff schedule. More details on that to follow.
For now, John, Joe, Jake and Tom - set your lineups for this Tuesday.
Just a quick clarification on the pick-up rule during the post-season - you are allowed one pickup per game that you play. John and Joe can make a pickup before Tuesday's game. The winner can make another pickup before Friday's game. Avery can only make one pickup before Friday. You must start the player you pick up - same as before.
Probable pitching matchups for Tuesday are:
Joe - Zach Grienke (KC) at home vs. CLE (Masterson) - Tue
John - Dane Haren (ARI) at SF (Cain) - Tue
Jake - John Lester at home vs. CHW (Contreras) - Tue
Tom - Josh Johnson (FLA) at home vs. NYM (Pelfrey) - Wed
Tief's FNFT World Series Champion Odds:
Jake - 2:1
Avery - 3:1
Tom - 4:1
Joe - 12:1
John - 14:1
Chris Carpenter's 25 point game vaulted Tom ahead of Joe and knocked him back to a tie with Tief at 29 points. Both of their top hitters had 12, so it went to the second tiebreaker where Javier Vazquez' 5 topped A.J. Burnett's -11.
The 1-game playoff will be this Tuesday, August 25. The other playoff series between Jake and Tom will also start that day. Avery must await the winner of Tuesday's game. The Division Playoff Series will now start Friday, August 28 and will need to use a double-header game on Saturday, September 6 to accommodate the full playoff schedule. More details on that to follow.
For now, John, Joe, Jake and Tom - set your lineups for this Tuesday.
Just a quick clarification on the pick-up rule during the post-season - you are allowed one pickup per game that you play. John and Joe can make a pickup before Tuesday's game. The winner can make another pickup before Friday's game. Avery can only make one pickup before Friday. You must start the player you pick up - same as before.
Probable pitching matchups for Tuesday are:
Joe - Zach Grienke (KC) at home vs. CLE (Masterson) - Tue
John - Dane Haren (ARI) at SF (Cain) - Tue
Jake - John Lester at home vs. CHW (Contreras) - Tue
Tom - Josh Johnson (FLA) at home vs. NYM (Pelfrey) - Wed
Tief's FNFT World Series Champion Odds:
Jake - 2:1
Avery - 3:1
Tom - 4:1
Joe - 12:1
John - 14:1
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Pennant Race - Saturday
The Lachmann Division is still too close to call and there is a distinct possibility of a tie.
Joe has 30 points and can only add to that total with either Papelbon (RP) or Qualis (RP), both relief pitchers. If neither pitches, he will get -1 from C.J. Wilson. Pending other players today, Joe is most likely at a 1-5 record for the week. If he is going to move off of that record, going down seems more likely than up.
John sits at 42 points and has Aaron Laffey (CLE) pitching tonight. A 4 point game out of Laffey would virtually guarantee that John will finish ahead of 5 other teams and secure a 3-3 record - good enough for a tie with Joe. Something in the 10-15 range would probably get him to 4-2 which would probably be enough to win the division outright.
In today's games, John needs to root for and Joe needs to root against (about in order):
Aaron Laffey - SP/CLE
Chris Carpenter - SP/STL
Ryan Franklin - RP/STL
Bobby Jenks - RP/CHW
Joe needs to root for and John needs to root against:
A.J. Burnett - SP/NYY
Matt Garza - SP/TB
David Aardsma - RP/SEA
Troy Tulowitski - SS/COL
Justin Upton - OF/ARI
I'll make updates to this post tonight if I am able.
UPDATE 9:50pm
Laffey gets 7 points - hand counted a few other key players. The Lachmann division is almost certain to finish in a tie. This would be the first ever one-game playoff in the history of the league.
Joe has 30 points and can only add to that total with either Papelbon (RP) or Qualis (RP), both relief pitchers. If neither pitches, he will get -1 from C.J. Wilson. Pending other players today, Joe is most likely at a 1-5 record for the week. If he is going to move off of that record, going down seems more likely than up.
John sits at 42 points and has Aaron Laffey (CLE) pitching tonight. A 4 point game out of Laffey would virtually guarantee that John will finish ahead of 5 other teams and secure a 3-3 record - good enough for a tie with Joe. Something in the 10-15 range would probably get him to 4-2 which would probably be enough to win the division outright.
In today's games, John needs to root for and Joe needs to root against (about in order):
Aaron Laffey - SP/CLE
Chris Carpenter - SP/STL
Ryan Franklin - RP/STL
Bobby Jenks - RP/CHW
Joe needs to root for and John needs to root against:
A.J. Burnett - SP/NYY
Matt Garza - SP/TB
David Aardsma - RP/SEA
Troy Tulowitski - SS/COL
Justin Upton - OF/ARI
I'll make updates to this post tonight if I am able.
UPDATE 9:50pm
Laffey gets 7 points - hand counted a few other key players. The Lachmann division is almost certain to finish in a tie. This would be the first ever one-game playoff in the history of the league.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Pennant Race
There is a new leader in the Lachmann Division as Joe has vaulted ahead of John by 2 games heading into the final Friday of the regular season. The winner will take on Avery in the best-of-five Division Playoff Series. If Joe and John finish the regular season tied, they would play a one game head-to-head playoff next Tuesday, August 25. If either of the two wins the division outright, the playoff series with Avery will start on Tuesday.
Jake has clinched the Lopes division and if he can top it off with a 6-0 on Friday he will finish with the best FNFT regular season record ever. Tom has won the wild card with a 102+ win season. The Wild Card Playoff series will start on Tuesday, August 25 (even if the other division winner is not determined yet.) This will be a 4-game series with Jake needing to win two games and Tom neding to win three. Or you can think of it as a traditional best-of-five with Jake having already won game 1 by virtue of having the best record.
The rest of us are mostly just mailing it in from what I can tell. Max has clinched a spot above the Smith line. Tief needs only one win on Friday to do so as well.
I've got a very busy weekend, but I'll try to post as many playoff updates as I can. I'll also get a playoff schedule posted to the home page at some point.
Jake has clinched the Lopes division and if he can top it off with a 6-0 on Friday he will finish with the best FNFT regular season record ever. Tom has won the wild card with a 102+ win season. The Wild Card Playoff series will start on Tuesday, August 25 (even if the other division winner is not determined yet.) This will be a 4-game series with Jake needing to win two games and Tom neding to win three. Or you can think of it as a traditional best-of-five with Jake having already won game 1 by virtue of having the best record.
The rest of us are mostly just mailing it in from what I can tell. Max has clinched a spot above the Smith line. Tief needs only one win on Friday to do so as well.
I've got a very busy weekend, but I'll try to post as many playoff updates as I can. I'll also get a playoff schedule posted to the home page at some point.
Sunday, August 09, 2009
Chasing the Smith Line, Beating the Mark
Almost lost in the self-loathing and public browbeating I've taken over how horrible my FNFT team has been this year is the fact that someone else is even worse. Both Max and I may go down in the record books as having the two worst FNFT records ever.
In order to finish ahead of Mark's worst ever 53-109 season, I must finish the season 2-14 and Max must finish 4-12. In order to finish ahead of the Smith Line, I need to go 5-11 and Max must go 7-9.
Jake, on the other hand, can set a record for best FNFT regular season ever by finishing the season 12-4.
In order to finish ahead of Mark's worst ever 53-109 season, I must finish the season 2-14 and Max must finish 4-12. In order to finish ahead of the Smith Line, I need to go 5-11 and Max must go 7-9.
Jake, on the other hand, can set a record for best FNFT regular season ever by finishing the season 12-4.
Playoffs, and Other Related Odds and Ends
So much for playoff races. The FNFT Wild Card is now 1-1 in executing it's intended purpose of keeping more teams alive later in the year. By virtue of the fact that Jake and Tom happened to be in the same division, the FNFT wild card race had all of the drama of a Venezuelan election. So it goes - maybe next year.
As we head into the final siesta week of the season (a siesta week is one with no Tuesday game - Tief can just mail it in for a few days) the playoff picture is all but set.
Jake and Tom have clinched playoff spots. One will be the division winner and one will be the wild card. It is guaranteed that they will face each other in the first round of the playoffs in the first-ever 4-game FNFT Wild Card Playoff. The division winner must win 2 of the 4 games to win that series. The wild card team must win 3 of the 4. Given theoretical mathematical probabilities, the division winner has an 11 in 16 chance (69%) of winning the series, so this division race is very important to the playoff picture. Jake's magic number to beat Tom is 10, with 16 games remaining. If Jake and Tom were to tie for the division lead, the one-game playoff to determine the division champ would, in essence, be the first game of a traditional best of five series.
Avery leads Brett by 15 games and his magic number to win the division is two. It is a virtual certainty that Avery will return to the FNFT postseason after a 7 year absence. He has never lost an FNFT postseason series.
John leads Joe in the Lachmann Division by only three games. His magic number is 14, Joe's magic number to beat John is 20. If John holds on for the division title it would set up a Moops vs. Moors best of five Divisional Playoff Series.
* * *
For the first time, we will be using flex-scheduling in the playoffs and World Series, meaning that each playoff series will start as soon as it can on the next Tuesday or Friday. The schedule of days is:
Tuesday, Aug 25 - Divisional Playoff Game 1, Wild Card Playoff Game 1
Friday, Aug 28 - Divisional Playoff Game 2, Wild Card Playoff Game 2
Tuesday, Sep 1 - Divisional Playoff Game 3, Wild Card Playoff Game 3*
Friday, Sep 4 - Divisional Playoff Game 4* or W.C. Playoff Game 4* or W.S. Game 1
Tuesday, Sep 8 - Divisional Playoff Game 5* or W.S. Game 1 or 2
Friday, Sep 11 - World Series Game 1 or 2 or 3
Tuesday, Sep 15 - World Series Game 2 or 3 or 4
Friday, Sep 18 - World Series Game 3 or 4 or 5*
Tuesday, Sep 22 - World Series Game 4 or 5* or 6*
Friday, Sep 25 - World Series Game 5* or 6* or 7*
Tuesday, Sep 29 - World Series Game 6* or 7*
Friday, Oct 2 - World Series Game 7*
* if necessary
If we need a 1-game playoff on Tuesday, Aug 25 to determine division winners in either the Yost or Lachmann Divisions, the Divisional Playoff Series will be moved back one slot and will include a double header game on Saturday, Sep 5.
* * *
What happens to the online roster system during the playoffs? Nothing. Everyone will still have access to it. I am trusting that the teams not in the playoffs will not make any pickups (because you're not allowed to.) Otherwise it will continue to function as it has all season.
* * *
I'll be doing a lot of blog updates from here on out surrounding the playoffs and pennant races. Check back often.
As we head into the final siesta week of the season (a siesta week is one with no Tuesday game - Tief can just mail it in for a few days) the playoff picture is all but set.
Jake and Tom have clinched playoff spots. One will be the division winner and one will be the wild card. It is guaranteed that they will face each other in the first round of the playoffs in the first-ever 4-game FNFT Wild Card Playoff. The division winner must win 2 of the 4 games to win that series. The wild card team must win 3 of the 4. Given theoretical mathematical probabilities, the division winner has an 11 in 16 chance (69%) of winning the series, so this division race is very important to the playoff picture. Jake's magic number to beat Tom is 10, with 16 games remaining. If Jake and Tom were to tie for the division lead, the one-game playoff to determine the division champ would, in essence, be the first game of a traditional best of five series.
Avery leads Brett by 15 games and his magic number to win the division is two. It is a virtual certainty that Avery will return to the FNFT postseason after a 7 year absence. He has never lost an FNFT postseason series.
John leads Joe in the Lachmann Division by only three games. His magic number is 14, Joe's magic number to beat John is 20. If John holds on for the division title it would set up a Moops vs. Moors best of five Divisional Playoff Series.
* * *
For the first time, we will be using flex-scheduling in the playoffs and World Series, meaning that each playoff series will start as soon as it can on the next Tuesday or Friday. The schedule of days is:
Tuesday, Aug 25 - Divisional Playoff Game 1, Wild Card Playoff Game 1
Friday, Aug 28 - Divisional Playoff Game 2, Wild Card Playoff Game 2
Tuesday, Sep 1 - Divisional Playoff Game 3, Wild Card Playoff Game 3*
Friday, Sep 4 - Divisional Playoff Game 4* or W.C. Playoff Game 4* or W.S. Game 1
Tuesday, Sep 8 - Divisional Playoff Game 5* or W.S. Game 1 or 2
Friday, Sep 11 - World Series Game 1 or 2 or 3
Tuesday, Sep 15 - World Series Game 2 or 3 or 4
Friday, Sep 18 - World Series Game 3 or 4 or 5*
Tuesday, Sep 22 - World Series Game 4 or 5* or 6*
Friday, Sep 25 - World Series Game 5* or 6* or 7*
Tuesday, Sep 29 - World Series Game 6* or 7*
Friday, Oct 2 - World Series Game 7*
* if necessary
If we need a 1-game playoff on Tuesday, Aug 25 to determine division winners in either the Yost or Lachmann Divisions, the Divisional Playoff Series will be moved back one slot and will include a double header game on Saturday, Sep 5.
* * *
What happens to the online roster system during the playoffs? Nothing. Everyone will still have access to it. I am trusting that the teams not in the playoffs will not make any pickups (because you're not allowed to.) Otherwise it will continue to function as it has all season.
* * *
I'll be doing a lot of blog updates from here on out surrounding the playoffs and pennant races. Check back often.
Monday, August 03, 2009
The Scoop
A story after my own heart. (I could still play, by the way.)
How many scoops?
August 3, 2009
The most recent edition of ESPN's Wednesday Night Baseball pitted the New York Yankees against the Tampa Bay Rays. Rick Sutcliffe, former major leaguer and current ESPN color commentator, was talking about the Yankee defense in 2009 and made note of the change at first base this year, from Jason Giambi to Mark Teixeira. Sutcliffe then dreamed out loud and wished there was a statistic to count the times a first baseman handles a bad throw by an infielder and scoops the ball in the dirt. He would use such data to evaluate the difference between Giambi and Teixeira.
Luckily for Sutcliffe, we can make his dream come true today. In The Fielding Bible—Volume II, we introduced Defensive Misplays and Good Fielding Plays as an additional way to evaluate fielders in certain plays. One of those Good Fielding Plays counts the times a first baseman scoops the ball, saving his infielder a throwing error. Let's see if we can help Sutcliffe evaluate the Yankee defense at first base (GS="Games Started").
GS Scoops GS Scoops 101 32 155 44 91 30 91 42 93 26 131 37 96 26 128 37 85 24 153 36 85 24 154 35 70 24 135 33 94 23 156 33 95 22 95 31 87 22 124 30 68 20 151 30 91 19 112 29
2009 2008 Player Player Albert Pujols Justin Morneau Paul Konerko Todd Helton Todd Helton Carlos Pena James Loney Kevin Millar Lance Berkman Mark Teixeira Derrek Lee Carlos Delgado Chris Davis Casey Kotchman Ryan Howard Ryan Howard Mark Teixeira Ross Gload Kendry Morales Daric Barton Joey Votto Lance Berkman Justin Morneau Jason Giambi
In 2008, Jason Giambi recorded 29 scoops for the Yankees in 112 games started, and Mark Teixeira recorded 36 for the Braves and Angels in 153 games started. In 2009, Teixeira has scooped 22 balls in the dirt through 95 starts and Giambi has scooped 14 in 58 games at first. While this looks like a victory for Teixeira, fans of Giambi will note that he plays a large number of games serving as his team's Designated Hitter and doesn't play as many games as Teixeira at first base. In fact, in 2008, Giambi's 29 scoops for the Yankees were good for 0.26 scoops per game started, while Teixeira's 2009 scoops for the Yankees are only 0.23 per game. This isn't a significant difference, but there is nothing here to suggest that Teixeira is better at scooping errant throws than Giambi.
The true difference between Gold Glover Mark Teixeira and Jason Giambi is in handling grounders. In the last two years Teixeira has saved his teams 18 runs fielding grounders, while Giambi has cost his team 18, a 36-run difference in Defensive Runs Saved. (Defensive Runs Saved is a statistic developed in The Fielding Bible—Volume II.)
Baseball's best "scooper" in the last two years is Colorado's Todd Helton. He was limited to 81 games started at first base in 2008 due to injury, and in those 81 games, he was able to scoop an astonishing .52 balls per game. This year, while his scoops per game don't approach his rate in 2008, Helton is still among the scoop leaders.
Used with permission from John Dewan's Stat of the Week™, www.statoftheweek.com.
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