PLAYOFF UPDATE

Another FNFT regular season is in the books.  The 2010 FNFT Playoffs will be:

John - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?

vs.

Avery - MAYBE HE WAS TALKING TO ME

Tief - CHIEF BENDERS

vs.

Bill - MR. WARMTH STRIKES

Classic.

A couple of notes on the playoff schedule.  There is a doubleheader of sorts on Labor Day weekend.  It's not a true doubleheader but the games are back-to-back.  One game will span Friday and Saturday and the other will span Sunday and Monday.

When I drew up the original schedule, I had said that the World Series would start as soon as possible after the playoffs ended so as to avoid playing right up to the last weekend.  I've scraped that.  If you take a look at the schedule you'll understand why.  If both playoff series ended in either 3 or 4 games, the World Series would need to start the next day after playoffs ended.  I think that's just too quick of a turnaround, so I have the World Series to start on a set date - Friday 9/10.  Besides, the FNFT World Series should start on a Friday anyway.

I should add the disclaimer that I made the above schedule change without any knowledge of how it may affect the pitching rotations for my own team.  I'm not going to do that, because it's not true.  For two weeks already, I've had the pitching rotations of every team in the Major Leagues mapped out to the end of the season so that I know if/when I might need to pick up a starter and who the available choices might be. This change actually screws me a bit.

John and Tief return to the FNFT postseason for the first time since meeting in the 2004 World Series.  That year was Tief's lone FNFT championship.  John took the FNFT title the year before that (2003) defeating Dale for his only FNFT title.

Bill is back in the playoffs for the second time.  His lone FNFT championship came in 2006 when he defeated Jake for the title.

Then there's The King.  Eight FNFT championships in the first 15 years of the league - none since.  Of the four FNFT playoff teams this year, Avery is the one with the longest championship drought, currently at 8 years.

Same rules apply to the playoffs as do in the regular season.  One pickup per game.  Lineups due in at noon.  The lineup system will function as it normally does.  The rest of you can still go in there and look.  Just don't make any roster moves.

Finally, a few quick notes about the end of the regular season.

If Brett had played Lyle Overbay at 1B in Game 30 instead of Carlos Pena, he would be playing Avery on Tuesday in a 1-game playoff for the division title.

By finishing the season 6-0, Connor avoids the dubious distinction of finishing below the Smith Line.

No team finished with 100 wins.  The only other time that has happened was in 2008, but that's now twice in three years.

Seven teams finished within 10 games of the lead in their division.  That's the most ever.

Now, I'm off to study.  See you back on Friday...

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE

First, some advice for playoff contending teams:  Check the injury reports.  You just want to give away two positions?  I know.  "Tief, get a life."  Off soapbox.

Ubaldo Jimenez is through three scoreless innings, giving up only one walk.  No strikeouts though.  Still, Avery is pulling away.  Nothing but DNPs so far from Brett and Joe.

8:30 - Ubaldo has 13 points through 5 innings.  Still nothing from any of Joe or Brett's players.

SATURDAY UPDATE

Joel got all of the hitting he needed to make a last ditch run at the wild card - 57 points.  But it was his pitching that did him in.  John Lester and Carlos Marmol combined for -27 points.  He's not going to make it to the dance.

John got a solid game out of Felix Hernandez.  He will win the Aaron Division and finish with the best record in the league.  Bill Hicks will win the wild card.  Tief will limp to victory in the Spahn Division.

The Mathews Division is in the hands of Ubaldo Jimenez.  Joe has 32 points plus Carlos Gonzalez, plus his RP.  Brett has 27 points plus Soto, Rios and his RP.  Avery has 31 points plus Olivo, Butler, his RP - and Ubaldo.  Obviously a solid game by the NL Cy Young candidate will ice the division for Avery.  A blow up and anything could happen.  Colorado plays at Arizona tonight at 9:00 p.m.  I'll try to have live updates but it won't be until later tonight.

THURSDAY UPDATE

Seven teams have a mathematical chance at making the playoffs heading into the final Friday.  Only one of those team has clinched a playoff spot.  This is why we have three divisions and a wild card.

John clinched a playoff spot on Tuesday and is the only team yet to clinch.  He leads Bill by 6 games in his division.  Tief also leads Joel by 6 games.  The probability that one particular team goes 6-0 and another particular team goes 0-6 is 1 in 156 (0.64%).  Those are the odds that Joel and Bill are facing to finish tied for first in their respective divisions.  Because only one team can go 6-0 (or 0-6), it would be impossible for BOTH Joel and Bill to make up the 6 game gap.

The major pennant race is in the Mathews Division where Avery now leads Joe by 1 game and Brett by 2 games.  None of these three teams has a chance at the wild card, so this race is winner take all.  There are literally hundreds of different ways this could play out, including many that involve a tie.  In the event of a tie, a one-game playoff would be played next Tuesday (8/24).  There is even a chance for a first ever 3-way tie, in which case all three teams would be involved in the playoff with the highest score winning.

In addition to having a slim chance at the division, Joel also has a better chance at the wild card where he trails Bill by 3 games.

Here is the dream scenario for Friday:  Joel goes 6-0, Tief goes 0-6, Bill goes 3-3, Brett goes 5-1, Joe goes 4-2, Avery goes 3-3.

If this happened, six teams would be playing in Tuesday's one game playoff.  There would be a menage-a-trois for the Mathews Division, Tief and Joel would be playing head-to-head for the Spahn Division, with the loser being head-to-head against Bill for the wild card.

WEDNESDAY MORNING UPDATE

Very interesting developments on Tuesday night.

In the Mathews Division, Joe is going to go 0-4.  Brett and Avery are battling for the 4-0 position with Brett currently holding a slight edge.  If Brett holds his lead, and Avery goes 3-1, as he most likely would, Avery will lead the division by 1 game over Joe and by 2 games over Brett heading into the final weekend.  If Avery manages to get to 4-0, which could happen with a strong game from Ryan Franklin, he will hold a 2 game lead over Joe and 4 game lead over Brett.  Avery is back in the playoffs drivers seat, but all three teams will still have a shot.

In the Spahn Division, Joel has a chance to pick up 4 games on Tief and keep a mathematical chance of winning the division going into Friday.  His SP is Liriano tonight.  He hold about a 10 point lead on the week over Jake who has Tim Hudson pitching tonight in Atlanta.

Joel should also gain ground in the wild card race as Hicks is looking at a 2-2 at best.  Hicks currently leads the wild card race by 4 games.

PLAYOFF RACE - GAME 28

DEAD

Connor, Max, Gerry - All have been mathematically eliminated from the playoff contention.

MAY BE SAFELY LEFT FOR DEAD

Tom - Trails Bill by 10 games in the standings.  Would need to finish 10-0, have Bill finish 0-10, have a whole bunch of other things happen as well, and them win a 1-game playoff with Bill for the wild card.  Ain't gonna happen.

Both Jakes - Eliminated from their division races and trail Bill by 8 games in the wild card race.  Very similar scenario to Tom.

STILL WITH A WEAK PULSE

Brett - Nine games behind Bill in the wild card race but only 5 back in the division - but trailing two teams.  Magic number to beat Joe for he division title is 16, so a 10-0 finish would mean that Joe could go 6-4 to win outright or 5-5 to tie.  Needs to go 4-0 Tuesday to have even a slim chance.

Joel - Only two wins away from elimination in the division, but only 4 back in the wild card race.  Magic number to beat Bill is 15.  If that happens, the rest would probably fall into place.

ALIVE BUT NOT QUITE KICKIN'

Avery - Trails Joe by 2 games in the division and beating him is best chance for playoffs.  Tuesday is head to head - it's critical that he beats Joe straight up.  If so would enter final game no worse than 1 game back.

SLOW DANCING

Joe - Magic number to beat Avery is 9.  Beating Avery straight up on Tuesday would almost make it a lock.  Still would have a remote chance at the wild card if division falls through, but really doesn't want to go there.

Bill - Wild card is his to lose.  Holds a 4-game lead over the field.  Still has a remote chance at division title.  Finishing 7-3 would ice it.

AT THE DISCO

Tief - Magic number to win division is 2.  Is in barring a complete collapse.  Even with an 0-10 finish, would still likely be in.

John - Magic number to win division is 3.  Has clinched a playoff spot as he can finish no worse than the wild card.

HEAT

Just warming up the blog for the pennant race, playoffs and World Series.  Stay tuned...