Game 4 live update

Brandon Webb gave up 4 runs in the first inning. Through 2 innings pitched he is at -9 points with a pitch count of 48. Even if he strikes out every batter from here on and the D-Backs come back and win, Webb will fall one point short. Connor is going to win Game 4 and force a deciding Game 5 on Tuesday.

Connor's second baseman Jeff Kent is sitting out with a sore knee. Apparently Connor is trying to collect all of the injured second basemen in the Majors.

Game 4 Gems

Roy Halliday was good, but Jake Peavy was better. Peavy scored 32 points by my unofficial count, including 13 strikeouts, easily covering Halliday's 16. Gerry added only two more points by Trevor Hoffman making the final score 60-45 and giving Dale a historic victory in the first FNFT playoff, three games to one. Dale will advance to the FNFT World Series; his third appearance in the last six seasons.

In the other game, Armando Galarraga posted a respectable 15 points for Connor. He also gets 8 from Francisco Cordero bringing his current game total to 69. Kevin Youkalis sat for the second straight day (don't know why). Connor also gets points from Jeff Kent tonight. Jake sits at 49 going into tonight's game with Brandon Webb on the hill. Connor wins a tie breaker on Jayson Werth's 21, meaning that Webb must outscore Kent by 21 in order for Jake to win the game and the series. If not, Connor will force a fifth and deciding game on Tuesday.

I'll probably post live updates tonight.

Game 4 Update

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

That's what Game 4 of the FNFT playoffs will come down to on Sunday as both playoff games are virtually deadlocked.

Jake leads Connor 49-46 going into today's action. Jake has his ace Brandon Webb on the mound. Webb is coming off one of his poorest outings of the year (-6); one that cost Jake a chance for a win in Game 2. Jake also gets a reliever; either Joakim Soria (KC) or Grant Balfour (TB). As an interesting sidenote, Jake cut Houston Street right before Game 4. Street scored 13 points on Saturday and Jake would have gotten those points if Soria and Balfour don't pitch. Connor counters with Armando Galarraga of Detroit. A mismatch on paper, but this game isn't played on a computer chip. Connor also gets a reliever; Jo Nathan (MIN) if he pitches, otherwise 8 points from Francisco Cordero, and hitting points from Kevin Youkalis and Jeff Kent.

In the other game Dale leads Gerry 28-27. Gerry gets Roy Halladay (TOR) and Dale gets Jake Peavy (SD) in today's games. Each team also gets a reliever - Wood (CHC), Hoffman (SD), or Kobayashi (CLE) for Gerry and Paperlbon (BOS), Wheeler (TB) or Gonzalez (ATL) for Dale. Both teams' hitters all played on Saturday - none scoring more than 7 points.

Game 3 Final

Game 3 of the FNFT playoffs is in the books. Jake and Dale each go up two games to one.

Jake took a 57-42 decision over Connor behind a 20 point game from Scott Kazmir and a balanced offensive attack. Dale easily defeated Gerry 70-53 behind 20 points from Francisco Liriano.

Game 3 Update

It appears that Jake will win Game 3 in the FNFT West Regional playoff. He leads Connor 53-47. Each still gets a relief pitcher. Connor gets Joe Nathan if he pitches or if not gets 1 point from Francisco Cordero. Jake gets Joakin Soria (KC), Grant Balfour (TB), or Houston Street (OAK) in that order. Connor also gets Ray Durham who did not play last night. Durham has been sitting out with a sore shoulder. Connor would be wise to pick up a new second baseman for Game 4.

In the other series, Gerry leads 53-40 after Friday night's action. However Dale still gets his starting pitcher Jake Peavy, a reliever (either Pappelbon [BOS], Weeler [TB], or Gonzalez [ATL]), and his catcher Geovany Soto who was given a routine night off on Friday. Gerry also gets a reliever - Wood (CHC), Hoffman (SD), or Kobayashi (CLE).

A reminder to all involved that Game 4 is tonight. You are free to turn in a seperate lineup and make a separate pickup for today's game.

Beckett Scratched

Dale's likely Game 3 starter, Josh Beckett has been scratched from his start Friday night.

Game 3 Preview

Game 2 is in the books and both series are tied at one game each. It's a best of 3 now starting with a doubleheader this weekend. Once again, here are the rules:

The pitching order for Friday's game goes SP1 through SP6 on Friday, then SP1 through SP6 on Saturday. The only way you get a pitcher from Saturday is if none of the starting pitchers in your lineup pitch on Friday. Relievers go the same way.

The Saturday game (Game 4) works like an other normal FNFT game using Saturday and Sunday games as necessary. The only catch is that you can't use opints from a player that you used in the Friday game.

Here are the projected starters this weekend according to CBS Sportsline: (*** - Likely pitcher for Game 3, **** - Likely pitcher for Game 4

Connor - MONONA MERCENARIES
6618 S1 Ben Sheets Mil - Mon
7180 S2 Rich Harden ChC - FRI***
8140 S3 Armando Galarraga Det - SUN****
4288 S4 Randy Johnson Ari - Mon
7241 S5 Edwin Jackson TB - Thur
7108 S6 Seth McClung Mil - Bullpen

Jake - WRETCHING WEENERGIES
7121 S1 Brandon Webb Ari - SUN****
7509 S2 Cole Hamels Phi - Thur
4715 S3 Mike Mussina NYY - Thur
7292 S4 Scott Kazmir TB - FRI***
7808 S5 John Danks ChW - Mon
7823 S6 Matt Garza TB - Tue

Gerry - MURFIRSTERS
6559 S1 Carlos Zambrano ChC - SUN****
6134 S2 Roy Halladay Tor - SUN
6006 S3 Ryan Dempster ChC - Thur
7547 S4 Ervin Santana LAA - FRI***
7621 S5 Joe Saunders LAA - Tue
6767 S6 Justin Duchscherer Oak - DL

Dale - MILLER'S MAULERS
6872 S1 Jake Peavy SD - SAT****
6403 S2 Josh Beckett Bos - FRI***
7504 S3 Francisco Liriano Min - SAT
8091 S4 Jair Jurrjens Atl - SUN
8109 S5 Chris Volstad Fla - FRI
6276 S6 Brad Penny LAD - DL

Game 2

Unless Jim Thome scores at least 11 points tonight (which he is obviously capable of doing), both playoff series will be tied at one game apiece. Connor bounced back with a win behind Ben Sheets' 19 points. Brandon Webb stuck Jake with a -6. Dale got 28 from Geovany Soto helping him cover a -10 by his starting pitcher Jair Jurrens.

I'll have more tonight. I'll also get the website up to date. And get caught up on the Junior league. And start getting ready for the fantasy football draft. And pay a bunch of bills that have been sitting on my desk. And do my laundry.

GAME 1

I'm back.

The lack of communication over the weekend was due much more to a lack of time than a lack of connectivity, although the latter played a bit of a role. In the limited time I had online, my connection dropped a couple of times, and once right as I was about to post a message saying that I didn't have time for any updates.

Anyway... Game 1 is in the books. Gerry and Jake go up 1 - 0. Jake takes a close 57-52 contest over Connor behind a 21 point game by Cole Hamels, and home runs from Derrick Lee and Mark DeRosa. Gerry easily beats Dale 65-32. A solid performance by Ryan Dempster along with a balanced offense were more than enough to cover Dale's weak showing.

Game 2 is Tuesday.

Playoff Game 1 Preview

HOLEY MAN. It appears that Gerry has lost his second baseman Ian Kinsler for the season with a sports hernia. Kinsler went on the DL today and it appears he will have surgery. Gerry has no backup on his bench so he will be shopping.

Meanwhile, Connor's second baseman Kaz Matsui has also been placed on the DL with a weak back (that he got about a week back). His backup second baseman Orlando Hudson is already on the 60-day DL.

The free agent race is on. Top candidates as I see it:

Akinori Iwamura (TB)
Red Kent Hairs (LAD)
Freddy Sanchez (PIT)

There's a couple others too if you look. Don't forget about Ray Durham (MIL).

It appears that the Game 1 pitching matchups will be:

Gerry - Roy Halliday (TOR) vs. BOS (Byrd) on Friday
Dale - Josh Becket (BOS) @ TOR (Marcum) on Saturday

Jake - Cole Hamels (PHI) vs. LAD (Stults) on Saturday
Connor - Randy Johnson (ARI) vs. FLA (Sanchez) on Friday or Edwin Jackson (TB) @ CWS (Danks) on Friday

Updates for Game 1 will be spotty at best. I'll try to post updates here in the blog from the road, but I've got a very busy schedule.

Playoffs Set

John Lannan, the pitcher I picked up for Tom while he was on vacation, turned out to be the poison pill that knocked him out of the FNFT playoffs. Actually, Lannan would have needed a 22 point game (rather than his -15) for Tom to have gone 6-0 and set up a 1-game playoff. Connor's 62 point game clinched him a 5-1 record for the week and more or less iced it for him.

So, the playoffs are set.

In the East Regional it will be:

Gerry - MURFIRSTERS (98-64, 1719 pts)
vs.
Dale - MILLER'S MAULERS (91-71, 1622)

And in the West Regional it will be:

Jake - WRETCHING WEENERGIES (96-66, 1657)
vs.
Connor - MONONA MERCENARIES (91-71, 1645)

Connor has already gotten in some trash talk I see. I'm not sure if that's too wise. Dad's a grizzled vet of FNFT who is only a season removed from stinging back-to-back, 7-game World Series losses. I'm sure he is hungry to get back there for another shot. If he does, it will be the first time that an FNFT owner has taken his team to the Series in 3 out of 4 years since the reign of King Avery - back in the stone ages.

Gerry has drawn for his playoff opponent the only team in the FNFT that has as many Cubs players as he does. Dale and Gerry go into the playoffs with 4 Cubs each. These will be pretty easy games to keep track of.

The top four teams in total team points were the four to make the playoffs. It seems that the 3-division format worked fairly well.

The playoffs start with a single game this coming Friday, August 22. I will be out of town for that game but will do my best to post updates here in the FNFT Blog. Game 2 will be Tuesday, August 26.

Good luck to the four playoff teams. It was an enjoyable regular season.

Saturday Morning

TEAM	PTS	SP	RP	H	H	Record
Jake	75			Ortiz		6-0
Tom	54	Lannan				5-1
Dale	50		Papelbon	ARamirez		5-1
Joe	45		Wagner	Bay		4-2
Connor	44	Jackson	Nathan	Youkilis	Matsui	4-2
John	43			Escobar	Rolen	3-3
Gerry	30			Rios		3-3
Tief	28		Lyon			3-3
Max	23	Grienke	Putz	Braun	Drew	2-4
Avery	23	Harang	Valverde	Joyce		2-4
Bill	23			Pudge	Pedroia	1-5
Jacob	15	Sanchez	Jenks	Ellsbury	Overbay	1-5
Joel	14	Lackey	FRod	Lee	Rowand	0-6

It appears almost 100% certain that Jake has clinched the McNamee Division. Dale needed to beat him by 3 games to tie. No way that's going to happen.

Despite that, Dale is very well positioned to take the wild card. All of the wild card contenders (Dale, Tom, Connor, and Joe) are at the top of the scoring right now, which means they would all finish with similar records. Dale had a 2-game lead coming in, so it would take some teams from the bottom to sneak up and mess things up. Could happen, but not real likely.

The race for the Mitchell Division between Tom and Connor is still wide open. Tom is ahead by 10, but they each still get their starting pitchers, and Connor gets a reliever and two hitters (although his 2B Matsui has missed the last three games with a weak back that he got about a week back). The keys are the starting pitchers. For Tom, John Lannan (WAS) pitches tonight at home against Colorado, and for Connor, Edwin Jackson (TB) pitches tonight at Texas. There is still a strong possibility of a 1-game playoff. That game would be Tuesday night.

All of this analysis of course comes with the disclaimer that anything could still happen. But in following these games for 22 years, I know it rarely does.

Final Friday

8:00pm

If anyone is sitting up charting MLB games tonight... (GAL)

I've posted the projected starting pitchers in the Game 30 boxscore on the website. So far Joe, who's trying to sneak in the back door of the playoffs, has 14 out of Cliff Lee. Pettite (Bill) is just underway in New York after a rain delay. Zambrano (Gerry) is getting kicked around by the Marlins - 5 runs in the first 5 innings. Webb (Jake) has given up an early run. Maddux (John) and Parra (Tief) play later tonight.

On offense, Tom's new pickup Melvin Mora, DeRosa (Jake) and Cantu (Joe) have homered.

8:30pm

Good news for Dale. Toronto and Boston have been postponed, pushing Josh Beckett back to Sunday. That means Dale's starter will be Francisco Liriano who is pitching tonight and has given up 2 unearned runs on only 1 hit through 4 innings.

9:00pm

Cliff Lee goes the distance for Joe - 27 by my count. But Liriano is pitching a good game for Dale - one of the teams Joe must catch to sneak into the wild card spot. Brandon Webb is also throwing a very good game for Jake. It looks like Joe will need a lot of help despite Lee's gem.

Cubs won a game they should have lost. Cards win too.

10:10

Dale and Jake's pitchers have more or less matched Joe's. Jake got 25 out of Brandon Webb and Dale got 23 out of Liriano. It would seem that both Jake and Dale have solidified their spot in the playoffs, leaving Connor and Tom to battle for the final spot.

10:30

I just did a quick hand count of hitter's points and Dale and Joe are very close. That's not good for Joe as he needs to beat Dale by 3 games. They each still have a couple of players to get. Jake has a pretty nice pile of offense including 2 home runs. It would appear that he has enough to beat Dale and therefore win his division.

Done for tonight - I'll post prelims tomorrow morning. Watch here for further updates.

???

I found this picture on a baseball blog I read. I'll let you draw your own conclusions...

Playoff Doubleheader Rules

Some of you have been around long enough to remember doubleheaders in the FNFT. If you are, these rules are pretty much like they used to be back then.

Game 1 of the playoffs is Friday, August 22. Game 2 of the playoffs is Saturday, August 23. For the most part, these are treated as two separate and distinct games. You may submit separate lineups for each. You are allowed one pickup for each. The deadline for picking up players and submitting lineups is still on noon of game day, so you could (and in some circumstances, it would make sense to) change your Saturday lineup based on Friday results.

Hitters are fairly straight forward. Their Friday night game counts toward Game 1 and their Saturday game counts toward Game 2. The exception is if they don't play on Friday night. Then their Saturday game counts toward Game 1 and their Sunday game counts toward Game 2. This is an important point to be aware of. If one of your hitters does not play on Friday night, it might make sense to replace him in your Game 2 lineup, or else run the risk of not getting points for him for Game 2. If a hitter plays on Friday and not on Saturday, or if his Saturday game is used for Game 1 on Friday, you still get his Sunday stats toward Game 2.

For starting pitchers, the pecking order for Game 1 is #1 SP on Friday, #2 SP on Friday, #3 SP on Friday and so on down to the bottom of your rotation, then #1 SP on Saturday, #2 SP on Saturday, and on down the line. So basically, if any of your starting pitchers pitch on Friday night, you will get one of them for Game 1. Game 2 works like any other game with the exception that you can not use the pitcher who counted in Game 1. The order goes #1 SP Friday, #1 SP Saturday, #2 SP Friday, #2 SP Saturday, and so on. Relief pitchers work pretty much the same way as starters. It would be a good idea to just figure out who you want your starting pitcher for each game to be and put them in as your #1 starter. You can stack the others up behind him just in case.

Once we get past the doubleheader, everything goes as normal from there. The first round of playoffs is best 3 out of 5. The World Series is best 4 out of 7.

I will do real-time blogging through the playoffs and World Series to the extent that I can. As I mentioned, I will be out of town during the first weekend of the playoffs - returning on Monday.

Pennant Race, Playoffs

Alright - the much hyped FNFT pennant race hasn't really turned into the blockbuster I had promised. Still, going into the final week of the season there are six teams with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs. That's more than we've ever had.

Just so everyone is clear on how this goes, the division winner with the best record (probably Gerry) will play the wild card team in the first round of the playoffs. The other two division winners play each other. The first round of the playoffs is a best 3 out of 5, starting Friday, August 22.

Here's a rundown of the six remaining teams and what must happen for them to get in:

Gerry has clinched the Clemens Division and is the only team to have clinched a playoff spot so far. He will finish with the best overall record with any combination of two wins or two losses by Jake on Friday. If Gerry and Jake tie with the best record, Gerry wins a head-to-head tiebreaker based on total points scored unless Jake would somehow outscore him by 93 points.

Jake's magic number to clinch the McNamee Division is four - any combination of four wins or four losses by Dale and he wins the division. Even if Dale catches Jake for the division title, Jake has very good shot at the wild card, currently being five games ahead of Tom, his next closest competitor for that spot (although in this scenario, Jake will have had a bad week so it's not as done a deal as it may seem.) If Jake and Dale tie for best record in the division, most likely Dale will overtake him in total points and would win the division title based on that tiebreaker if Jake winds up being the wild card.

Connor leads the Mitchell Division by 1 game over Tom. His magic number to clinch is 6. If he and Tom tie, they would most likely need to play a 1-game playoff to determine the division champ, unless Dale fell out of the wild card spot and the other of them got in.

Dale's magic number to clinch a wild card spot is 6 over Connor, 5 over Tom and 4 over Joe. Only one of Connor and Tom matter as the other will win their division, so Dale must beat out two of those three teams to clinch a playoff spot.

Tom's best chance for the playoffs is beating Connor for the division title. His magic number to do so is eight.

Joe has the most hurdles to jump if he is to make the playoffs. He must catch both Dale and Tom (or Connor) to grab the wild card spot. He can not win his division.

John, in the mean time, has the best record in the FNFT since week six. The trouble is he started the season 2-20. Remember what I've said about how the teams in the lead after game 5 tend to hold those leads all season? After Game 5 this year, Tom led the Mithcell Division, Gerry led the Clemens Division, and Jake and Dale were tied for the lead in the McNamee Division. Only Connor, who was 9 games back in last place has bucked that trend. The first 5 games of the FNFT season are absolutely critical for if you are to have a successful season.

Here's a bizarre scenario - Dale and Jake tie for best record in the McNamee Division, and also tie with Tom or Connor for the wild card spot. This would set up a 1-game playoff on Tuesday 8/19 between the three teams, with the top two going to the playoffs. See? This is all still pretty good afterall.

Finally, a bit of incredibly horrible timing. The FNFT playoffs start on Friday August 22. The second game is Saturday August 23 and will have special double-header rules (which I'll fully explain here in this blog.) Well... I'm going to be out of town that weekend. I will have my Asus laptop with me. Despite its puny keyboard, I will be able to blog and email, but I will not have access to my Excel files. So, my game plan is to do the scoring by hand and report the results in this blog. Then, when I get back on Monday, I'll do a full update. Max, Sandi, and Laura - you'll just have to deal with that. I've got an important job to do. Just eat another kringle or something while you wait.

Too Little, Too Late

If you exclude the first five game of the season, John would be leading his division.

CLEMENS			W	L	Pct	GB
John			66	52	.559	--
Gerry			65	53	.551	1
Joe			59	59	.500	7
Joel			50	68	.424	16

Playoff Matchups

I know that at the draft I floated my proposal for the team with the highest record getting to choose their playoff opponent. My recollection is that you all though I was nuts.

So, the rule will be that in the playoffs, the team with the best record - probably Gerry - will play the wild card team, which right now could be any one of four or five teams. The other two division winners will then play each other. If there is a tie for playoff position (like if two division winners finish with the same record) it will be broken by total team points. Any ties involving teams making the playoffs or not will still be decided with a one-game playoff.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

I updated the FNFT Pitching Report. Here are some interesting, yet predictable findings. The correlation between team pitching and wins is almost double that between team hitting and wins.

	Wins	Hitting	Pitching	RkW	RkH	RkP
Gerry	90	1063	519	1	1	1
Jake	85	1034	501	2	3	4
Dale	83	968	497	3	6	5
Joe	79	833	513	4	13	2
Connor	79	949	506	4	9	3
Tom	78	1014	369	6	4	9
Tief	73	953	383	7	8	8
John	71	961	435	8	7	6
Avery	69	1042	358	9	2	11
Max	66	998	328	10	5	12
Jacob	62	913	319	11	11	13
Joel	59	874	402	12	12	7
Bill	55	930	366	13	10	10
Correlation		45%	78%