Monday, May 07, 2012
WC & Last 5
OK, so now I've added some columns to the standings. "WC" stands for games behind in the wild-card race. I've been adding that in late in the year - just putting it there a little earlier this year. "Last 5" is each team's record in the last five FNFT games. This was suggested to me by an owner who currently has a very impressive Last 5 record. Understandable that he would want to show it off.
Saturday, May 05, 2012
BAbip
I've added a new column to the online stats - BAbip or Batting Average on Balls In Play.
(I hope that this doesn't cause the stats tables to be too wide for your computer screen so that they start wrapping around and become difficult to read. If they do, let me know. Or change the screen resolution on your computer. Or get a new monitor.)
BAbip has become a widely followed stat in the sabermetric world and is something I'd like to have easy access to and use to evaluate players. Begin fair that I am, I'm providing it to everyone.
Several years ago a guy named Voros McCraken - a young punk baseball researcher like I used to be - discovered that if you only consider balls that are hit into play (excluding strikeouts, walks and home runs) that in the long run, players' batting average on those balls is relatively consistent from player to player. It is even more true for pitchers. The BAbip allowed by pitchers always tends to be about the same - regardless of whether the pitcher is Randy Johnson or Randy Wolf.
This phenomena has many implications in baseball research; most of which are beyond the scope of player evaluation for our league. However, if interpreted properly, it can be a useful tool for evaluating FNFT value.
The overall Major League BAbip, for all of baseball, tends to be right around .300. Since 1995, the highest it has ever been is .303 and the lowest it has been is .293. It's less consistent for individual players, but (and this is an important point) over the course of their careers the vast majority of players have a BAbip right around .300 as well. What this means is that a BAbip that is much higher or lower than .300 is not sustainable. BAbip therefore is a good proxy for measuring a player's luck.
In a nutshell, here is what you need to know:
If a player has a BAbip much higher that .300 it is likely that they have been lucky and their current stats are better than their inherent skill set would typically produce. In the future, this player is likely to have a decline in his statistics as compared to his recent performance. Conversely, a player with a BAbip much lower than .300 has most likely been unlucky. His skill are probably better than what his current statistics show and there is a good chance that his statistics will improve in the future.
Let's cherry pick a couple of examples. Jake Peavy right now is second in FNFT points. He's 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. He's off to a very good start. But we all know who Jake Peavy is. He is not the second best pitcher in baseball. His BAbip right now is .218. Batted balls are turning into outs when he pitches. He's rolling a lot of snake-eyes. He likely won't be able to sustain this level of performance long term.
Zack Grienke and Yovani Gallardo are two other good examples. Their BAbip's right now are .369 and .360 respectively. Grienke and Gallardo are far down the list in FNFT points. Yet you know they are good pitchers. You would trade Jake Peavy even-up for either one of them. But they have both been unlucky. Balls that would typically be turned into outs are falling in for hits when they pitch. It's likely that fate will turn around and they will put up better numbers from here on out.
There are a thousand article online about BAbip if you'd like to read more. Use that stat if you wish. Ignore it if not.
(I hope that this doesn't cause the stats tables to be too wide for your computer screen so that they start wrapping around and become difficult to read. If they do, let me know. Or change the screen resolution on your computer. Or get a new monitor.)
BAbip has become a widely followed stat in the sabermetric world and is something I'd like to have easy access to and use to evaluate players. Begin fair that I am, I'm providing it to everyone.
Several years ago a guy named Voros McCraken - a young punk baseball researcher like I used to be - discovered that if you only consider balls that are hit into play (excluding strikeouts, walks and home runs) that in the long run, players' batting average on those balls is relatively consistent from player to player. It is even more true for pitchers. The BAbip allowed by pitchers always tends to be about the same - regardless of whether the pitcher is Randy Johnson or Randy Wolf.
This phenomena has many implications in baseball research; most of which are beyond the scope of player evaluation for our league. However, if interpreted properly, it can be a useful tool for evaluating FNFT value.
The overall Major League BAbip, for all of baseball, tends to be right around .300. Since 1995, the highest it has ever been is .303 and the lowest it has been is .293. It's less consistent for individual players, but (and this is an important point) over the course of their careers the vast majority of players have a BAbip right around .300 as well. What this means is that a BAbip that is much higher or lower than .300 is not sustainable. BAbip therefore is a good proxy for measuring a player's luck.
In a nutshell, here is what you need to know:
If a player has a BAbip much higher that .300 it is likely that they have been lucky and their current stats are better than their inherent skill set would typically produce. In the future, this player is likely to have a decline in his statistics as compared to his recent performance. Conversely, a player with a BAbip much lower than .300 has most likely been unlucky. His skill are probably better than what his current statistics show and there is a good chance that his statistics will improve in the future.
Let's cherry pick a couple of examples. Jake Peavy right now is second in FNFT points. He's 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA. He's off to a very good start. But we all know who Jake Peavy is. He is not the second best pitcher in baseball. His BAbip right now is .218. Batted balls are turning into outs when he pitches. He's rolling a lot of snake-eyes. He likely won't be able to sustain this level of performance long term.
Zack Grienke and Yovani Gallardo are two other good examples. Their BAbip's right now are .369 and .360 respectively. Grienke and Gallardo are far down the list in FNFT points. Yet you know they are good pitchers. You would trade Jake Peavy even-up for either one of them. But they have both been unlucky. Balls that would typically be turned into outs are falling in for hits when they pitch. It's likely that fate will turn around and they will put up better numbers from here on out.
There are a thousand article online about BAbip if you'd like to read more. Use that stat if you wish. Ignore it if not.
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