Playoffs? Playoffs? Your Talkin' About Playoffs?

As promised at the draft, here is a complete rundown of how the FNFT playoffs will work this year.

WHO'S IN?

First of all, who is in? The three division winners and one wild card team as determined by win-loss record. The wild card team will be the second place team with the best record among all non-division winners.

In the playoffs, the team with the best overall record will be the top seeded playoff team and play the wild card team in the first round in a 4-game playoff. The other two division winners will play each other in a best 3-out-of-5.

TIEBREAKERS

If there are ties in win-loss records at the end of the regular season, the following scenarios will set up a 1-game playoff to be held on the Tuesday following the end of the regular season, August 25th: (Ties will be broken in this order as well)

1. If two or more teams are tied for best record in their division, the 1-game playoff will determine the division champion.
2. If two or more teams are tied for the wild card position, the 1-game playoff will determine the wild card.
3. If two or more teams are tied for best overall record, the 1-game playoff will determine the top seeded playoff team.

Here is an outrageous example of how this works. Suppose the following are the standings at the end of the year:

Division 1
Team A 90-72
Team B 90-72
Team C 90-72

Division 2
Team D 90-72
Team E 90-72

Division 3
Team F 90-72

Teams A, B, and C go into the playoff to determine the Division 1 winner. Teams D and E go in to determine the Division 2 winner. Team F must also go in to determine the top seeded playoff team. And then the playoff will also be used to determine the wild card among the teams not winning their division in Divisions 1 and 2.

Suppose the 1-game playoff goes down like this:

Team A - 96 points
Team D - 84 points
Team B - 62 points
Team C - 58 points
Team E - 42 points
Team F - 16 points

Team A would win Division 1 since they beat Teams B and C in the playoff. Team D would win Division 2 since they beat Team E in the playoff. Team F would win Division 3 since they had the best record in their division - the tie breaker doesn't even matter here. Team B would win the wild card since they had the highest score among non-division winning teams. Team A would be the top seeded playoff team since they won the tiebreaker between themselves and the other two division winners - Teams D and F. Got that? In this scenario, Team A would play Team B in a 4-game playoff and Team D would play Team F in a 5-game playoff.

PLAYOFF FORMAT

In order to win the 4-game playoff, the top seeded team (best overall record) needs to win 2 games, the wild card team needs to win 3 games - whichever comes first. The other playoff series is a traditional best-of-five. The two playoff series winner will meet in a best-of-seven World Series as usual.

Mathematically, if you assume that the chances of either team winning a playoff game are 50/50, the top seeded division winner now has a 68.75% chance of winning their playoff series against the wild card team, rather than a 50% chance if they had played a best-of-five. I still like this rule change. It makes the regular season and having the best overall record a little more meaningful, but not so meaningful as to not give the wild card a chance.

FLEX SCHEDULING

The playoffs this year will use a flexible schedule system. The days on which playoff games would take place are:

Tuesday, August 25
Friday, August 28
Tuesday, September 1
Friday, September 4
Saturday, September 5***
Tuesday, September 8
Friday, September 11
Tuesday, September 15
Friday, September 18
Tuesday, September 22
Friday, September 25
Tuesday, September 29
Friday, October 2

If there is a 1-game playoff, it will be held on Tuesday, August 25. The playoff between the top seeded team and the wild card will start on Friday, August 28. If the teams in the other, best-of-five series do not need to play a 1-game playoff, their series will start on Tuesday, August 25. If they do need a 1-game playoff, their series will start on Friday, August 28 - the same day as the other series. In this case, the series would use Saturday, September 5 if necessary to play Game 4 of their series in the second game of a Friday-Saturday doubleheader. This is the only scenario in which a double header is used in the playoffs.

The World Series will start on the next Friday or Tuesday after the last playoff series ends. The earliest the World Series could possibly start is Friday, September 4. This would happen if there is not a 1-game playoff, the best-of-five playoff series is a 3-0 sweep and the 4-game playoff is a 2-0 sweep by the top seeded team. If the World Series started on Friday, September 4, the earliest it could end would be Tuesday, September 15 if it were a 4-0 sweep.

The latest the World Series could start would be Friday, September 11 (baring a tragedy). The latest if could end if it started on this day would be Friday, October 4 - the last Friday of the MLB regular season.

If you want to keep looking further ahead, the 2010 FNFT Draft will be on Saturday, April 3 - which is also my wife's birthday so you'll have to bring her something.