THURSDAY UPDATE

Seven teams have a mathematical chance at making the playoffs heading into the final Friday.  Only one of those team has clinched a playoff spot.  This is why we have three divisions and a wild card.

John clinched a playoff spot on Tuesday and is the only team yet to clinch.  He leads Bill by 6 games in his division.  Tief also leads Joel by 6 games.  The probability that one particular team goes 6-0 and another particular team goes 0-6 is 1 in 156 (0.64%).  Those are the odds that Joel and Bill are facing to finish tied for first in their respective divisions.  Because only one team can go 6-0 (or 0-6), it would be impossible for BOTH Joel and Bill to make up the 6 game gap.

The major pennant race is in the Mathews Division where Avery now leads Joe by 1 game and Brett by 2 games.  None of these three teams has a chance at the wild card, so this race is winner take all.  There are literally hundreds of different ways this could play out, including many that involve a tie.  In the event of a tie, a one-game playoff would be played next Tuesday (8/24).  There is even a chance for a first ever 3-way tie, in which case all three teams would be involved in the playoff with the highest score winning.

In addition to having a slim chance at the division, Joel also has a better chance at the wild card where he trails Bill by 3 games.

Here is the dream scenario for Friday:  Joel goes 6-0, Tief goes 0-6, Bill goes 3-3, Brett goes 5-1, Joe goes 4-2, Avery goes 3-3.

If this happened, six teams would be playing in Tuesday's one game playoff.  There would be a menage-a-trois for the Mathews Division, Tief and Joel would be playing head-to-head for the Spahn Division, with the loser being head-to-head against Bill for the wild card.