Pennant Race, Playoffs

Alright - the much hyped FNFT pennant race hasn't really turned into the blockbuster I had promised. Still, going into the final week of the season there are six teams with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs. That's more than we've ever had.

Just so everyone is clear on how this goes, the division winner with the best record (probably Gerry) will play the wild card team in the first round of the playoffs. The other two division winners play each other. The first round of the playoffs is a best 3 out of 5, starting Friday, August 22.

Here's a rundown of the six remaining teams and what must happen for them to get in:

Gerry has clinched the Clemens Division and is the only team to have clinched a playoff spot so far. He will finish with the best overall record with any combination of two wins or two losses by Jake on Friday. If Gerry and Jake tie with the best record, Gerry wins a head-to-head tiebreaker based on total points scored unless Jake would somehow outscore him by 93 points.

Jake's magic number to clinch the McNamee Division is four - any combination of four wins or four losses by Dale and he wins the division. Even if Dale catches Jake for the division title, Jake has very good shot at the wild card, currently being five games ahead of Tom, his next closest competitor for that spot (although in this scenario, Jake will have had a bad week so it's not as done a deal as it may seem.) If Jake and Dale tie for best record in the division, most likely Dale will overtake him in total points and would win the division title based on that tiebreaker if Jake winds up being the wild card.

Connor leads the Mitchell Division by 1 game over Tom. His magic number to clinch is 6. If he and Tom tie, they would most likely need to play a 1-game playoff to determine the division champ, unless Dale fell out of the wild card spot and the other of them got in.

Dale's magic number to clinch a wild card spot is 6 over Connor, 5 over Tom and 4 over Joe. Only one of Connor and Tom matter as the other will win their division, so Dale must beat out two of those three teams to clinch a playoff spot.

Tom's best chance for the playoffs is beating Connor for the division title. His magic number to do so is eight.

Joe has the most hurdles to jump if he is to make the playoffs. He must catch both Dale and Tom (or Connor) to grab the wild card spot. He can not win his division.

John, in the mean time, has the best record in the FNFT since week six. The trouble is he started the season 2-20. Remember what I've said about how the teams in the lead after game 5 tend to hold those leads all season? After Game 5 this year, Tom led the Mithcell Division, Gerry led the Clemens Division, and Jake and Dale were tied for the lead in the McNamee Division. Only Connor, who was 9 games back in last place has bucked that trend. The first 5 games of the FNFT season are absolutely critical for if you are to have a successful season.

Here's a bizarre scenario - Dale and Jake tie for best record in the McNamee Division, and also tie with Tom or Connor for the wild card spot. This would set up a 1-game playoff on Tuesday 8/19 between the three teams, with the top two going to the playoffs. See? This is all still pretty good afterall.

Finally, a bit of incredibly horrible timing. The FNFT playoffs start on Friday August 22. The second game is Saturday August 23 and will have special double-header rules (which I'll fully explain here in this blog.) Well... I'm going to be out of town that weekend. I will have my Asus laptop with me. Despite its puny keyboard, I will be able to blog and email, but I will not have access to my Excel files. So, my game plan is to do the scoring by hand and report the results in this blog. Then, when I get back on Monday, I'll do a full update. Max, Sandi, and Laura - you'll just have to deal with that. I've got an important job to do. Just eat another kringle or something while you wait.