PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING

It's actually been a very long time since we made any changes to the FNFT points system.  I consider myself a traditionalist - I think many of you are too.  That's why I think it's time we make some changes.

Traditionally, a traditionalist is one who likes to keep things they way they are.  I am that way.  The basic FNFT scoring system was developed 24 years ago and for the most part hasn't changed (although it has, but mostly back when we were all younger and more whimsical.)  But what's changing is the game of baseball - the fuel of FNFT.  In particular, what's changing is the way pitchers are used.  It is time we change our scoring system to accommodate that.  To keep things they way they were.

RELIEF PITCHERS

Over the past four seasons, there have been 1,114 FNFT games in which a team's relief pitcher got a save.  That's actually only 41% of all relief pitcher games.  We reward a save with 4 points, which I think we should continue to do.  Saving a game is a relief pitcher's primary responsibility and it should be rewarded as such.

The problem is though that for the most part, all saves are alike.  In 85% of those 1,114 save games, the pitcher pitched exactly one inning.  What this means is that in the 41% of the best games for relievers, the only thing that distinguishes them from another are the hits, walks, and strikeouts.  Well you typically don't get many of those in only one inning pitched, so we wind up with all of the best relief games being basically the same number of points.  No variation means no value.  Admit it - the last few seasons you really didn't care who your closer was, as long as you had one.

My proposal would increase the amount of variance in relief pitcher points and therefore make the choice of relief pitchers more important to the overall outcome of games.  I propose:

1. Award relievers two points for a strikeout rather than one.  What is better than a closer coming in and striking guys out?
2. Give relief pitchers two points for a "clean" outing - one in which they give up no hits or walks.
3. Eliminate the 4 points awarded for a relief win.  A win for a reliever is more often a bad thing than good.  It most likely means he blew the save.  A win for a reliever will be worth nothing.

The effect of this change would increase the average relief game (in FNFT games) from  3.8 to 5.3 - only a modest change.  But more importantly, it would create more separation between good and bad games.  Right now the percentage of games in which a reliever scores 10 or more points is only 1.4%.  This scoring change would increase that to 15.9% - over ten times more likely.  By comparison, hitters score 10 or more points in 12.9% of games.  This change would make your relief pitcher about as important as your third or fourth best hitter.

Another thing I like about this change is that it adds a scoring element for relievers that is not counted in traditional stats.  For hitters, we have the bonus for getting at least one run, hit, and RBI in a game.  For starting pitchers we award points for a 10-strikeout game.  Clean outings are not an official stat.  I like having things like that in our scoring system.  FNFT has always been about in-game performance and things you could look up in a box score - not stats compiled over time.  This scoring changes for relievers better fits that spirit.

STARTING PITCHERS

While we're at it, what about starters?  It's not much of a secret to anyone that pitchers don't win as many games as they used to.  In the Major Leagues there were only eight 20-game winners in the last five years.  There were 26 in the five years before that.  Winning games has become as much a result of team hitting than pitchers' performance.  Bradon Looper led the Brewers with 14 wins last year.  This year he doesn't have a job.

I propose that we reduce the number of points for a starting pitcher win from 4 to 2.  This makes a win +2 and a loss -2.  In addition, I propose a 3-point bonus for a "Real Quality Start".  What's that you ask?  You haven't been reading In-Between Hops.  A Real Quality Start is a game in which the pitcher gives up fewer hits plus walks than innings pitched.  If he gives up 3 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings, that's not an RQS.  If he gives up the same thing in 6-1/3, it is.  Essentially, this would replace the two points we're taking away for the win and add one more since this doesn't happen as often.  In the Majors, about 20% of games are real quality starts.  In FNFT I suspect it's much higher, but still not near the percentage of wins.

Again, this change fits the spirit of rewarding in-game performance for things that aren't counted in the regular stats.  It's simple and you can look it up in a box score.  As with all rule changes, we can vote on these changes at the draft.  I just wanted to lay out my case here because I've put a lot of time into this.  I spent several hours testing various combinations of scoring on live data and think that this proposal works out best.

Thanks for reading.