The Zack Wheeler saga

I am going to make a ruling on something that benefits my own team and that you may think is unfair.  But I'm going to do it anyway.  I get Zack Wheeler - the phenom starting pitcher for the Mets.

You'd think that after 27 years of running a fantasy league that you would eventually get all of the kinks worked out and have rules to cover every possible situation, but it seems you never do.

The month of June, for reasons beyond the $cope of this discu$$ion, is when all Major League teams promote their top prospects.  And these prospects become hot commodities for FNFT teams in contention for the playoffs.  By this time of year all of the 'regular' players have been well picked over, so picking up these prospects is a chance to find a diamond in the rough.  Whenever Team A announces that they are bringing up Prospect X, there's a very high likelihood that some FNFT team will try to pick up Prospect X within about two hours.

The problem of course is that Prospect X hasn't played any Major League games yet this year and therefore isn't listed in the stats - which is essentially the list of free agents.  So to pick him up you have to leave a message on the FNFT MESSage Board - we've been through this.

On Tuesday night, the Mets had called up their other pitching phenom Zack Wheeler to make his Major League debut.  I was keeping an eye on the game and after Wheeler made it through four innings unscored upon, I decided I would pick him up.  Because afterall, every pitcher who has ever thrown 4 shutout innings at the beginning of his career has eventually been elected to the Hall of Fame.

So I went on the MESSage Board and posted the following, to the best of my recollection:  "I am picking up Zack Wheeler (SP-NYM), cut Kevin Youkilis".  Then at 5:26 a.m. Thursday morning, I actually made the transaction because Zack Wheeler was now listed in the stats that I had just posted at about 5:20 a.m.

Well the problem is that the message didn't take.  You can believe that or not believe that.  But if you've ever tried posting more than one or two messages on that thing I'm sure that you can find my claim at least plausible.  I telling the truth.  I wouldn't make that up.  The FNFT MESSage Board is easily the least functional part of the FNFT website.  I have trouble with it all the time.  I'm sure a lot of you do to.  I'd like to have something better, but that too is a different discussion.

Actually, none of this would really be a problem had not one of the leagues other piranha, Bredd posted a message at 8:45 p.m. on Wednesday claiming Wheeler.  It came after mine - I swear.  His message wasn't there when I posted mine.  But because his message is her first tangible evidence of anyone wanting Wheeler, it could be claimed that Bredd should get him.

I'm going to rule in my favor for two reasons:

1. I honestly attempted to make a post claiming Wheeler before anyone else did.  Swear.  You could say that I should have check to make sure the message was posted, and I should have, but...
2. The message that Bredd posted was: "dibs on wheeler Tom". (sic)  Well first of all, it's Zack, not Tom.  Second of all, saying "dibs" in not a transaction.  A transaction is claiming one player and cutting another.

So I'm keeping Wheeler and perhaps I'll use him against Bredd in the playoffs.  I'll fix all of this as soon as I can.  OnRoto, our stats service, creates an ID for a player once he shows up on a list of Top 100 prospects.  So all of these Zack Wheeler's, Yasiel Puig's, and Wil Myers' all could be included in a Master Players list somewhere and the system could allow you to pick them up from there in addition to from the regular stats pages.  I'll add that to my list of things to do.

Playoff Picture

Here is the complete playoff picture after Friday night's games:

Jake has clinched his division and will face either Max or Tief in the playoffs.

John has clinched the wild card and will face Avery (almost 100% certain) or Joel (almost impossible) in the playoffs.

Joel entered Friday trailing Avery by 5 games and needed to go at lease 5-1 to have a chance.  Unfortunately for him his starting pitching (Billingsley: -3) let him down for a second consecutive week.  Barring a 3 home run game from his catcher Wilin Rosario he will not catch Avery for the division title.

Avery's pitcher tonight is Madison Bumgarner, although it would seem to matter little how he does.

The final playoff spot between Max and Tief is still too close to call although Max has a decided advantage going into Saturday.  Tief trails by 22 points and would need his starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda to make up that difference and more for him to have a chance.

Updates throughout the day as time permits...

Good Points

Joel posted the following on the FNFT Message board:

If we want to make hitting worth more, we should provide bonus points for multi-hit games.  A couple weeks ago, I had a guy get three hits.....total points=3.  I understand that we prefer power hitters to slappers, but that's stupid.  This change would help power hitters who can also hit for average.  If necessary, we could juice up the power bonus too, but i really don't think that's necessary.  The scoring system for relievers is way too generaous now too.  They shouldn't be scoring more than starters, which is often the case.

Starting pitchers this year (the ones that count) are averaging 12.33 points per game.  Relief pitchers are averaging 5.71 PPG.  I think it's an exaggeration to say that relievers "often" outscore starters.  It would be more appropriate to say that they "sometimes" do.

I just checked.  In fact, a team's starting pitcher of record scores more than their relief pitcher of record only 64.2% of the time.  The other 35.8% of the time either the reliever scores more of they're the same.  Given the relative perceived value of starters and relievers, I don't think it a misrepresentation to say that relievers "often" score more.  I stand corrected.

Be all of that as it may, I still like the new rule for relief pitchers.  If the season ended today, we would have two relief pitchers in the auction next year.  I think that's a good number.  We'd have 10 starting pitchers.  I think that's probably about right too.

Here is a discussion of the relief pitcher point system.  And here.  And here.

I think it's an excellent idea to add bonus points for multi-hit games.  Hitters this year are averaging 4.11 PPG.  That means that the average relief pitcher is worth almost one and a half times the average hitter.  I think that's out of whack.

Let's say that we changed the scoring for hitters so that a guy's first hit in the game is worth one point and each hit after that is worth two.

You guys don't still look at boxscores and add up your points on Friday night, do you?  'Cuz this would make it a little more complicated.  I can't imagine that anyone still does that.

If we made that change, the average score for hitters would go up to 4.93 PPG.  Given that you start nine hitters, that would on average increase a team's score by a little over 7 points per game.  I'd be fine with that.  I also like that it favors BA hitters over power hitters.

It's great that you brought this up.  I think that these debates are much better had in-season.  By March all of this will be forgotten.  Hoping others chime in.

WC & Last 5

OK, so now I've added some columns to the standings.  "WC" stands for games behind in the wild-card race.  I've been adding that in late in the year - just putting it there a little earlier this year.  "Last 5" is each team's record in the last five FNFT games.  This was suggested to me by an owner who currently has a very impressive Last 5 record.  Understandable that he would want to show it off.

BAbip

I've added a new column to the online stats - BAbip or Batting Average on Balls In Play.

(I hope that this doesn't cause the stats tables to be too wide for your computer screen so that they start wrapping around and become difficult to read. If they do, let me know. Or change the screen resolution on your computer. Or get a new monitor.)

BAbip has become a widely followed stat in the sabermetric world and is something I'd like to have easy access to and use to evaluate players. Begin fair that I am, I'm providing it to everyone.

Several years ago a guy named Voros McCraken - a young punk baseball researcher like I used to be - discovered that if you only consider balls that are hit into play (excluding strikeouts, walks and home runs) that in the long run, players' batting average on those balls is relatively consistent from player to player. It is even more true for pitchers. The BAbip allowed by pitchers always tends to be about the same - regardless of whether the pitcher is Randy Johnson or Randy Wolf.

This phenomena has many implications in baseball research; most of which are beyond the scope of player evaluation for our league. However, if interpreted properly, it can be a useful tool for evaluating FNFT value.

The overall Major League BAbip, for all of baseball, tends to be right around .300. Since 1995, the highest it has ever been is .303 and the lowest it has been is .293. It's less consistent for individual players, but (and this is an important point) over the course of their careers the vast majority of players have a BAbip right around .300 as well. What this means is that a BAbip that is much higher or lower than .300 is not sustainable. BAbip therefore is a good proxy for measuring a player's luck.

In a nutshell, here is what you need to know:

If a player has a BAbip much higher that .300 it is likely that they have been lucky and their current stats are better than their inherent skill set would typically produce. In the future, this player is likely to have a decline in his statistics as compared to his recent performance. Conversely, a player with a BAbip much lower than .300 has most likely been unlucky. His skill are probably better than what his current statistics show and there is a good chance that his statistics will improve in the future.

Let's cherry pick a couple of examples. Jake Peavy right now is second in FNFT points. He's 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA.  He's off to a very good start. But we all know who Jake Peavy is. He is not the second best pitcher in baseball. His BAbip right now is .218. Batted balls are turning into outs when he pitches. He's rolling a lot of snake-eyes. He likely won't be able to sustain this level of performance long term.

Zack Grienke and Yovani Gallardo are two other good examples. Their BAbip's right now are .369 and .360 respectively. Grienke and Gallardo are far down the list in FNFT points. Yet you know they are good pitchers. You would trade Jake Peavy even-up for either one of them. But they have both been unlucky. Balls that would typically be turned into outs are falling in for hits when they pitch. It's likely that fate will turn around and they will put up better numbers from here on out.

There are a thousand article online about BAbip if you'd like to read more. Use that stat if you wish. Ignore it if not.

Yer Out!

Monday, April 30, 2:30 p.m.

I'm having an Internet outage at my home which is preventing you from accessing the roster system.  It's also preventing me from updating the main website.  But as always, you can find the latest information here at the FNFT Blog.

The guy at Time Warner says he's on it.

UPDATE:  Well, it seems that my cable modem is fried.  I have to take it in to Mayfair for a replacement.  I'll try and do that tonight.

UPDATE 2:  6:30 p.m.  New modem installed.  Seems to be working like a charm.

* * * CORRECTION * * *

On Saturday morning, unbeknownst to all of you, instead of doing the FNFT stats from the PC in my den - my normal place - I did them on my iPad by remote controlling my PC with it using a wonderful program called LogMeIn.  (From the comfort of my morning throne, mind you.  I know - you don't want to picture that.)  I did this as a dry run in preparation for when I'm going to be at Indy in a few weeks.  I wanted to see if I could do everything on the iPad and not have to bring a laptop computer along.

So what?

Well while the remote control software is very nice, it is still more cumbersome to control all of the highlighting of things with the mouse and all of the Ctrl-this and Alt-that functions I have to hit.  And when I copied Friday's hitting stats to me spreadsheet, I unknowingly failed to copy about 25 rows of stats.  About 7-8 of those players are in the league and so they were given credit for Saturday's game instead of Friday's game.  John astutely noticed that I had two of his players wrong and pointed it out to me.

I fixed everything that needed to be fixed.  So if you looked at the stats before 5:30 p.m. on Sunday, they were wrong and the new ones have been posted.  John and Joe improve by one game.  Joel and myself are one game worse.  All of the player stats and playoff probability graph that I posted this morning have been corrected as well.

I will bring a laptop computer with me to Indy.

Playoff Probabilities

You'll notice that I've added a new column to the FNFT standings that appear on the website. This is a product of a new toy I created late last season and put the fishing touches on just last week. What it does is basically answers the question - if the rest of the season were to play out entirely at random, what are each team's chances right now of making the playoffs.

It starts with the current FNFT standings and generates random results for the rest of the season. Then it tallies which four teams would make the playoffs if the season went down that way. It repeats this process 10,000 times. A team's Playoff Probability as reported in the standings is the percentage of those 10,000 random iterations in which that team made the playoffs. In statistical speak, there are called Monte Carlo Projections.

Here are the standings right now:

RED	W	L	Pct	GB	PL%
Bill	9	3	.750	--	38%
Connor	8	4	.667	1	34%
Jake	7	5	.583	2	31%
Tim	6	6	.500	3	26%
John	4	8	.333	5	20%
GREEN	W	L	Pct	GB	PL%
Avery	8	4	.667	--	37%
Joel	8	4	.667	--	38%
Brett	6	6	.500	2	29%
Joe	6	6	.500	2	30%
BLUE	W	L	Pct	GB	PL%
Tief	9	3	.750	--	50%
Jacob	5	7	.417	4	32%
Max	1	11	.083	8	17%
Gerry	1	11	.083	8	17%

As you can see only one team - me - has so far established a 50% chance of making the playoffs. That means that in roughly half of the random iterations my team was one of the playoff teams and in the other half it wasn't.

Also note that these percentages are not precise. Despite having identical records, Avery/Joel and Brett/Joe's percentage differ by 1%. That's just rounding and/or a random fluctuation. If I ran the simulation again they might be the same or they might be flipped the other way. It takes about two minutes to run 10,000 simulations. That's about how much time I'm willing to invest in this each week. If I ran more simulations, the percentages would be slightly more accurate but it wouldn't mean anything to anything.

Perhaps obviously, the better your record, the better chance you have of making the playoffs.  The further ahead your are of the other teams in your division, the better your chance.  My chance is helped by the two teams in my division that are off to very poor starts.  The probabilities in the other two divisions are much more closely bunched.

If you have a good week, your playoff chances will go up. If you have a bad week they will go down.  At the end season, four teams will be at 100% and all of the rest will be at 0%.

Take this for what it's worth.  In 2004 I trailed Avery by 14 games after Game 23.  I wound up winning the division by 11 games.  I'm certain this system would have given me no chance to win.  But that's why we play the games.

FNFT All-Star Team

I had fun with this.

(Although I acknowledge it will probably be March before most of you read it.)

As Major League Baseball was handing out its awards, I wondered what it would be like if there were player awards for FNFT - an FNFT All-Star team if you will.  There's really not much new here.  Every year I post the list of points scored in FNFT games by every player who was on a roster.  But I've never put them together in the form of a team.  Until now.  The FNFT All-Star team will be the top scoring player(s) at each position.

To be fair and balanced - which I am want to do - I decided the FNFT All-Star team would consist of 16 players.  There will be eight pitchers (5 starters and 3 relievers) and eight hitters (on at each field position with three outfielders).  This is very much like an FNFT starting lineup on a given week.  I left off a DH because we really don't use a traditional DH.  We allow anyone to fill that spot.  If an actual DH, like David Ortiz, were among the top scorers, I would use subjective judgement as to where to put him.

Here are the FNFT All-Star teams for each year going back to 2000 - the "modern era" of FNFT - the first year for which I have complete data.

This year's All-Star team boasts a record 13 first-time All-Stars.  The only returning players are Roy Halliday and Matt Kemp, each appearing on their second All-Star team, and reliever Jonathan Papelbon who is on the All-Star team for the fifth time.  This is just one short of Curt Shilling's record six.  Perhaps you'd want to consider that little fact when you vote for the FNFT Hall of Fame this spring.

Anyway, peruse away.  My right thumb, which if you don't know, I smashed in a log splitter a few weeks ago, is still too sore to allow me to type my typical manefesto.

UPDATE:  There's one little point I wanted to add.  If you'll notice, the top 3 scoring players in 2011 were all starting pitchers.  That was the case in 2010 too - as was it in 2009 and 2008.  For four years in a row we haven't had a hitter in the top three.  Last year the top five scoring players were starting pitchers.  The year before that the top six were.  The steroids era has ended.  Hitters are not scoring as many points as they used to.  We should adjust for that the way we did for relief pitchers a couple of years ago.  Something like adding one extra point for a home run would probably work.  In fact, that's what we did pre-steroids.  I'll play with the numbers and make a recommendation.

Playoffs Wrapup

Wow.  As FNFT ages (and as I do too), I am coming to realize that when I find the game of baseball most exciting is when I am doing live scoring and updates of FNFT playoff and World Series games.  The real players, except for a few, are mostly going through the motions playing out the season.  They obviously have no clue that their performances, combined in a tangled and random way, are creating something as riveting as sports entertainment gets.  Last night did not disappoint.  It was the closest and most exciting finish to the FNFT playoffs since they were first played four years ago.  I wish I had blogged all of my website updates to have a permanent record of the events.  I will try to recreate it as best I can here.

Brett and Jacob headed into Monday in a virtual dead heat.  Brett led by only one point and both had starting pitchers going.  Madison Bumgarner was up first for Brett and he threw a game for the ages.  Thirteen strikeouts in 8+ innings - 33 points.  The bar had been set.  High.

While that was happening, Joel's "Plan B" pitcher Doug Fister of Detroit was throwing a gem of his own - a 13 strikeout, 36 point performance.  Joel needed to make up a 47 point deficit going into Monday and there was rain in the forecast in Philly which could wipe out his "Plan A" pitcher Cliff Lee.  There was hope.  Still hope.

As the evening games got underway, Yunel Escobar was not in the starting for Jacob.  He had jammed his wrist on Saturday as it apparent that he wasn't going to play.  One hitter down, but one still to go for Jabob - the Rays B.J. Upton.  Upton started the night 0 for 2.

In Philadelphia, the rain held off.  Cliff Lee took the mound and Fister's 36 points were off the board.  Joel Hanrahan, in the mean time, notched a workmanlike save and added 6 points to Joel's total.  He was now only down by 41.  Yipee.  Cliff Lee and Jose Reyes would have to cover that.

Jacob's pitcher was Javier Vazquez.  He chose Vazquez to start over Jeremy Hellickson because of a hot stretch in his last 4 starts.  Hellickson had scored 29 on Sunday which at this point, would have left Jacob just short of Brett's total.

Vazquez started his game with three shutout innings.  Cliff Lee started his game with three shutout innings.  Vazquez gave up a run.  Cliff Lee kept putting up zeros.  Jose Reyes meanwhile was 0 for 2.

Then, in a far corner of the world called Tropicana Field, B.J. Upton hit a solo home run in a meaningless 4-1 game.  Eight more points for Jacob.  Game on.

Cliff Lee kept going.  Clicking off inning after inning of shutout ball.  The 47 point deficit had become 32, then 26, then 18...  Could both Joel and Jacob pull off enormous comebacks on the same night?

Javier Vazquez retired the side on one hit in the 7th inning.  His pitch count was 97 and the Marlins were winning easily.  Assuming a win for Vazquez, Brett and Jacob were now tied at 71.  Jacob needed only one more point for the win.  But the Marlins 107 year old manager Jack McKeon had seen enough.  He pulled Vazquez for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 7th.  Brett wins on the tie breaker.  Eric Hosmer's 12 to Ryan Howard and B.J. Upton's 9.

In Philadelphia, Cliff Lee threw a shutout.  37 points,  One better than Fister.  Joel now trailed John by only three points with Jose Reyes still playing.  The Mets were down to their last ups in the 9th.  Reyes would bat 7th so Joel needed a rally if Reyes was to get another AB.

First batter, David Wright, flied out to left.

Then, more hope. Angel Pagan tripled.

Jason Bay followed with a home run.  Then Nick Evans doubled.  Could it be?

Mets catcher Josh Thole grounded out for the second out of the inning.  It would be up to pinch hitter Willie Harris to keep the inning alive.  Jose Reyes was on-deck.

* * *
I'm sure Willie Harris has flown out to left field many times in his career.  Last night was like most others.  Unbeknownst to him, in a far corner of the world called New Berlin, Wisconsin, a fantasy baseball owner saw his season end with that fly out and I'm sure felt far more horrible than Willie Harris did when he put his bat back in the rack.

* * *

What an outstanding playoffs.  Congratulations to all four teams involved.  There were two losers only because there had to be.  It's a shame.

John against Brett in the World Series.  Game 1 tonight.

Game 5 Update

CC Sabathia racked up 28 points and Matt Kemp, Jhonny Peralta, and J.J Putz all scored in double digits as John posts 76 on Sunday in Game 5 of the FNFT playoffs.  Joel (29 points) will need a minor miracle to make up a 47-point deficit with three players today.

The good news is that his starting pitcher Cwiff Wee is certainly capable of eating up a chunk of that himself.  He was third in FNFT points this season and had 5 starts of 28 points or more.  Lee pitches tonight at home against the Braves.  The bad news is that the weather forecast in Philadelphia calls for a 90% chance of thunderstorms tonight.  Joel's backup SP is recent pick-up Doug Fister of Detroit who pitches this afternoon in Cleveland.

Joel also gets a relief pitcher - either Joel Hanrahan of Pittsburgh or Joakim Soria of Kansas City - plus Mets shortstop Jose Reyes who was given a routine day off on Sunday.  Big games by all players involved will certainly be needed if Joel is to make a run.  If not, John will head to his second consecutive FNFT World Series.

In the other playoff game, Brett holds a 1-point edge over Jacob (38-37) with both teams' starting pitchers going today.  Brett sends Madison Bumgarner of the Giants in a 3:00 p.m. start in San DIego.  Jacob will counter with Javier Vazquez in a 6:00 p.m. start in Miami against the Mets.  Vazquez got the starting nod over Jeremy Hellickson.  Hellickson's 29-point performance will be long remembered if Vazquez implodes.

Jacob also gets B.J. Upton of Tampa Bay who was given Sunday off to make room for one of the Rays outfield prospects, and Yuniel Escobar of Toronto who left Saturday night's game with a jammed wrist and was out of the lineup on Sunday.

Game 4 Update

Game 4 of the FNFT playoffs will come down to the wire on Saturday.  Barring a disaster by Cole Hamels who pitches Saturday night in Miami against the Marlins, Joel will win Game 4 and force a 5th and deciding game on Sunday.  The weather in Miami calls for a 20% chance of showers in the evening.  Joel leads John by 5 points with John still getting points from a reliever.  None of his 3 RP pitched on Friday.

The other playoff game is far too close to call.  Brett, needing a win to stay alive, gets Michael Pineda of the Mariners who is pitching on the road against Oakland as well as Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Carl Crawford of the Red Sox whom he hopes will pad his slim 2 point lead.  Both Saltalamacchia and Crawford sat out last nights 10-0 drubbing in Texas.  Crawford was a late scratch from that game due to illness.  There was no injury report on Saltalamacchia (shit, I hate typing that name), so probably just a routine day off.  There is no chance or rain in either Oakland or Dallas today.

Jacob will counter with his SP Ian Kennedy of Arizona who will be pitching across the bay from Pineda against the Giants and Tim Lincecum.  He also gets RP points, either Craig Kimbrel of Atlanta or 7 from Antonio Bastardo.

Possible live updates tonight.  This too depends on the weather.  If it's clear I'll be out in Sun Prairie and the Pepsi Nationals Midget races.

Playoffs Update

Both series of the FNFT playoffs are now even at one game apiece and have now become best 2 out of 3 series.  There was a contingency schedule for the World Series if both playoff series were sweeps.  That is obviously not going to happen.

So - Game 3 of the playoffs is Tuesday, August 30.  Game 4 is Friday, September 2.

Game 5, if necessary, will be Sunday, September 4.  Make a note of that.  We have never had an FNFT game on Sunday, but this one will work just like any other FNFT game.  Every team in the Major Leagues has a game scheduled on both Sunday and Monday, Labor Day.  The schedule turns from Sunday to Monday so every team plays a different opponent, but they all play.

Under normal circumstances, I would do live blogging on Saturday night so if you wanted to, you would know before you went to bed whether there will be a Game 5.  However, I'm out of town on Saturday so I won't be able to do updates until my normal time Sunday morning.

As far as lineups go - you will have until the normal time to change your lineup for Friday night's game - noon or whenever (before any games start).  Then you will have from midnight Friday (see next paragraph) until 12 noon on Sunday to set your lineup for Sunday's game.  That noon deadline is hard - games on Sunday start at 12:05.

If you need to set your lineup for Sunday's game BEFORE Friday night, you will need to email it to me.  I will assume that the lineup you have set in the system on Friday night is your lineup for Game 4.  Once I have pulled down the Game 4 lineups (Friday night) I will post a note on the website that it's ok to change your lineup for Sunday's game.

-13

Joe has been bitching about his relief pitching all year:

"Can I bench all of my relievers?"

"If someone wants a RP that loves F&%kin you up on Friday, Saturday, Tuesday or Wednesdays, I've got one for you."

When I ran the position analysis a couple of games ago, Joe's relievers had scored only 67 points all season - easily the lowest in the league.

Despite that, Joe went into last night trailing in the wild card race by two games.  His hitting was mediocre but Jake's (Jake S.) hitting was worse.  When I did a quick hand tally late last night, Joe was leading Jake 39-28 including 9 points from Joe's #2 RP Jose Valverde and 7 from Jake's #1 RP Craig Kimbrel.  Both have starting pitchers going on Saturday.  Jake declared, "It's over.  I'm not going to win the wild card."  I said, "You could be right."

Enter Ryan Madison - Philly's closer - Joe's #1 RP.

He came in to pitch the bottom of the 9th with the Phils leading 4-2.  A solid save would put Joe in a very good position going into Saturday's games.  But oops, he gave up a single to Jason Werth.  Then another single to Danny Espinosa.  And another to Jonny Gomes.  4-3 Phillies. Wil Ramos, the Nats catcher bunted the runners to second and third, netting Madison his first positive point of the inning.  Jesus Flores pinch hit and was intentionally walked (with Joe muttering 'Jesus Christ' if he was watching).

Ian Desmond then singled, tying the game and eliminating the possibility of a save for Madison.  But he then struck out Rick Ankiel for the second out and had a chance to get out of the inning only a hair below sea level.

Enter Ryan Zimmerman (aka Bob Dylan).  A 3-2 fastball from Madison was send Blowin' in the Wind.  A walk-off grand slam.  And -13 for Ryan Madison.  'Fuck you up' he did.

Now Joe trails Jake by 14 points going into today's games.  Not only must he cover that spread, but beat him by enough to gain 2 games in the standings.  Alexi Ogando goes for Joe and Justin Masterson for Jake.

Stayin' Alive

All three divisions have been clinched.  John, Joel and Brett are in the FNFT playoffs.  Jake S. goes 0-4 and now leads Joe by only 2 games for the wild card spot.  Gerry is also still in the wild card race but trails by 5 games.

One more Friday, then it's FNFT playoffs.  If a 1-game playoff is necessary to decide the wild card, it will be this Sunday, August 21.

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday... maybe

For perhaps the first time ever, the FNFT postseason schedule includes Sunday-Monday games.

If there is a 1-game playoff it will be this Sunday, August 21.  The games from Monday, August 22 will count as they normally would.  Please note that not all MLB teams play on Monday, August 22.  So for those teams not schedules, you will only get the Sunday game.  That's obviously not ideal, but it's really the only way I could schedule it.  The only teams that could possibly be involved in a 1-game playoff at this point are Jake S., Joe and Gerry.  Please plan accordingly.

Also, if the playoffs go to a Game 5, it will be on Sunday and Monday, September 4-5.  That Monday is Labor Day and all MLB teams are scheduled to play both Sunday and Monday.

Similarly, the World Series would conclude with Game 7 on a Sunday too (September 25).  I did this to avoid scheduling the last and second to last days of the MLB season which ends Wednesday, September 28.

Now, if there is no 1-game playoff and if BOTH playoff series end in three games, the World Series start will be moved up to Friday, September 2 and all of the Sundays will be erased from the post-season schedule.

Pennant Race

I drove up Bark Lake Road yesterday which is near my house.  The south side of the road is lined with sugar maples and most of them have a several leaves with bright red tips.  It must be getting close to playoff time in FNFT.

John and Brett are the first two teams to clinch playoff spots.  John may have technically clinched last Friday.  Realistically he cliched in May.  Brett has clinched the Roger Clemens Division and will be making his first appearance in the FNFT playoffs in his third season in the league.

Joel leads the Pedro Martinez Division by 9 games over Gerry.  His magic number is two.  Assuming he wins, this will be his first appearance in the FNFT post-season since losing to Gerry in the World Series in 2002.

Jake S. leads the Wild Card race by 4 games over Joe and 8 over Gerry.  His magic number is 7.  He could technically still catch John for the division title in which case John would then be the wild card.  This would be his first FNFT post-season appearance in eight seasons in the league.

Joe and Gerry are the two teams on the outside looking in.  Gerry would seem to need nothing short of a miracle to pick up 8 games in the wild card race or 9 games in his division race.  Joe trails by 4 in the wild card race - difficult but clearly not impossible.

As for the rest of you... It was just one of those years.  The divide between the top six teams and the bottom six teams never closed.

As for me, I am headed toward having the worst record in FNFT for the second time in three years.  With a championship sandwiched in between.  Weird.  But I'll take it.

LOOKING AHEAD

I have won my second FNFT Championship.  I am happy.  When this thing started back in 1986, had I known it would survive for this long, I would have guessed I'd have ten of these by now.  But I have two.  Oh well.  And as happy as I am to have them, I'd give them back in an instant if I could know that FNFT was going to be around long enough for me to win another two - at the same pace I've won the first two.

I sincerely hope that everyone will be back to play FNFT next year.  Despite my failings as a fantasy football commissioner, my love for my role as FNFT Commissioner has never been greater.  2011 will mark the 25th season of FNFT.  Think about that.  Every year my goal is to make FNFT better than it was the year before.  I think - if things work the way I'm hoping - next year will be no exception.

I've had an idea swimming around in my head which I have told a couple of people about.  I'm going to unveil it to everyone right now.  To celebrate our silver anniversary, 2011 will be the creation of the:

FNFT Hall of Fame

We play the games just like real baseball does.  Now we will have a Hall of Fame just like real baseball does.

Before the draft next spring, I will distribute the detailed rules and initial FNFT Hall of Fame ballot.  We will vote on which players from the FNFT era are most deserving of induction.  Over the course of next season, I will write a thoroughly researched bio for each of the inductees in my typical grammatically imperfect and sometime humorous fashion and reveal them one-by-one as the season goes on.  They will live in infamy in a special section of the FNFT website and will also have a permanent physical display in bobblehead form which I will dust off for each draft.

We will have different rules for our Hall of Fame - because we can.  In order for a player to be inducted, he must be retired from Major League Baseball (no 5-year waiting period), have appeared on an FNFT roster at some point in his career and played a significant role in the league - however you, as a voter, want to define that.

The class of 2011 will include only three players and we will add one per year thereafter.  This will be a very exclusive club.  I will describe the voting and selection process sometime during the off-season. Voting will be done through secret ballot at the draft.  Be thinking of who you might vote for.

Speaking of the draft, Major League Baseball has altered their schedule for next season.  Opening Day is Thursday, March 31st,  which is actually kind of convenient for us.  That puts the date of the FNFT draft as

Saturday, March 26th, 2011

Let's go with that.

The FNFT website will be open for business all off-season as the baseball season never ends for me.  I will keep the 2010 stats updated and posted up until the draft.  I will also be working on some long planned enhancements to the FNFT roster system and History section of the website.

It has once again been my extreme pleasure serving you as Commissioner.  See you next season.

Tief

TUESDAY NIGHT LIVE - GAME 4

You know, I really need to wrap this thing up because I'm going to be up musky fishing this weekend.  Plus, I'm being distracted trying to keep my fantasy football team from winning a game.

Anyway, here are tonight's early returns:

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Buchholz	Bos	13	6th inning
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	7	6th inning
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	late
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	late
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	late
3B	Arod	NYY	2	6th inning
OF	Granderson	NYY	3	6th inning
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	6th inning
OF	Matsui	LAA	0	late
DH	Davis	NYM	2	8th inning
			27
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	Scherzer	Ari	0	Wednesday
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
C	McCann	Atl	0	6th inning
1B	Cabrera	Det	8	6th inning
2B	Raburn	Det	8	6th inning
SS	Infante	Atl	1	6th inning
3B	Zimmerman	Was	2	7th inning
OF	Werth	Phi	13	6th inning
OF	Markakis	Bal	0	6th inning
OF	Morrison	Fla	2	8th inning
DH	Dunn	Was	1	7th inning
			35

900pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Buchholz	Bos	15	done - could get L
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	7	8th inning
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	late
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	late
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	late
3B	Arod	NYY	4	8th inning
OF	Granderson	NYY	3	8th inning
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	6th inning
OF	Matsui	LAA	0	late
DH	Davis	NYM	2	Final
			31
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	Scherzer	Ari	0	Wednesday
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	2	8th inning
1B	Cabrera	Det	9	9th inning
2B	Raburn	Det	8	9th inning
SS	Infante	Atl	1	8th inning
3B	Zimmerman	Was	2	8th inning
OF	Werth	Phi	16	8th inning
OF	Crisp	Oak	0	Did not start
OF	Morrison	Fla	2	Final
DH	Dunn	Was	3	8th inning
			43

I had Markakis in my S/L originally.  It should have been Crisp.

100pm

Last update tonight...

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Buchholz	Bos	15	Final
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	7	Final
1B	AGonzalez	SD	4	3rd inning
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	4th inning
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	4th inning
3B	Arod	NYY	4	Final
OF	Granderson	NYY	3	Final
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	8th inning
OF	Matsui	LAA	1	4th inning
DH	Davis	NYM	2	Final
			36
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	Scherzer	Ari	0	Wednesday
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0	DNP
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0	DNP
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0	3 - Final
C	McCann	Atl	2	FInal
1B	Cabrera	Det	9	Final
2B	Raburn	Det	8	Final
SS	Infante	Atl	1	Final
3B	Zimmerman	Was	5	Final
OF	Werth	Phi	16	Final
OF	Crisp	Oak	0	Did not start
OF	Morrison	Fla	2	Final
DH	Dunn	Was	7	Final
			50

TUESDAY NIGHT LIVE

This is likely to be a very long post.  FNFT World Series baseball and election returns on the same night.  A good night to stay home.  Here we go...

630pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	0	7pm
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	930pm
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	9pm
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	9pm
3B	Arod	NYY	0	0/1
OF	Granderson	NYY	2	1/1 2b
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	Not starting
OF	Matsui	LAA	0	0/1
DH	Peralta	Det	0	7pm
			2
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	4	1IP K
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	0	0/1
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	9pm
2B	Raburn	Det	0	9pm
SS	Infante	Atl	0	0/1
3B	Zimmerman	Was	0	0/0
OF	Werth	Phi	0	0/0
OF	Markakis	Bal	1	1/1
OF	Morrison	Fla	0	0/0
DH	Dunn	Was	0	0/0
			5

I'll try to post a similar update every 15 minutes or so and interject BS whenever I feel it appropriate.

Reports say Posada has a routine night off and will return to the lineup tomorrow (unless, of course, he's needed for a pinch hit strikeout later tonight.)

Michael Cuddyer is not in the starting lineup for the Twins despite hitting .467 with 5 HR and 12 RBI against the White Sox starting pitcher, Danks.  Don't know what's up with that.

Cuddyer is in fact playing.  (Thank you Twitter.)  At first base - that's why I didn't see him on the list.  Male pattern blindness.

No way I can do an update every 15 minutes.  It takes almost that long to fill out the stupid thing.

655pm

ADAM DUNN!!!  Two-run jack!  That's what I'm talkin' 'bout baby.

700pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	0	7pm
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	930pm
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	9pm
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	9pm
3B	Arod	NYY	0	0/1
OF	Granderson	NYY	2	1/1 2b
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	7pm
OF	Matsui	LAA	0	0/1
DH	Peralta	Det	0	7pm
			2
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	8	2.2IP 2H 2K
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	0	0/1
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	9pm
2B	Raburn	Det	0	9pm
SS	Infante	Atl	0	0/1
3B	Zimmerman	Was	2	1/1 R
OF	Werth	Phi	1	0/0 BB
OF	Markakis	Bal	1	1/1
OF	Morrison	Fla	0	0/1
DH	Dunn	Was	10	1/1 R 2RBI HR
			22

Travis Wood has given up 2 runs through 3 innings. Looks like I picked the right pitcher.

I had the wrong start time for Detroit - game starts at 7.

Hudson is having a shakey 4th inning - 2 on 1 out.

725pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	0	7pm
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	930pm
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	0/0
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	0/0
3B	Arod	NYY	4	1/2 R RBI
OF	Granderson	NYY	5	2/2 R 2-2b
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	0/1
OF	Matsui	LAA	0	0/2
DH	Peralta	Det	0	0/0
			9
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	11	4IP 3H BB 3K
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	1	1/2
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	0/1
2B	Raburn	Det	1	0/0 BB
SS	Infante	Atl	0	0/1
3B	Zimmerman	Was	3	2/2 R
OF	Werth	Phi	1	0/0 BB
OF	Markakis	Bal	1	1/2
OF	Morrison	Fla	1	0/1 R
DH	Dunn	Was	11	2/2 R 2RBI HR
			30

John is starting to get a little somthing going but I'm holding at about a 20 point lead.

Sucks about Ryan Grant, hey?

Wainwright 2 Ks in the 1st inning.

NICKY MARKAKIS - YARD!!!

Hudson is lights out - 2 more Ks.

ARod goes deep.

745pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	7	1.2IP H BB 4K
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	930pm
2B	Kinsler	Tex	0	0/0
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	0/1
3B	Arod	NYY	13	2/3 2R 2RBI HR
OF	Granderson	NYY	5	2/3 R 2-2b
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	0/1
OF	Matsui	LAA	2	1/3 2b
DH	Peralta	Det	0	0/0
			27
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	15	5IP 4H BB 5K
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	1	1/2
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	0/1
2B	Raburn	Det	1	0/0 BB
SS	Infante	Atl	0	0/2
3B	Zimmerman	Was	3	2/3 R
OF	Werth	Phi	1	0/1 BB
OF	Markakis	Bal	9	2/3 R RBI HR
OF	Morrison	Fla	1	0/2 R
DH	Dunn	Was	12	2/2 R 2RBI HR BB
			43

My niece just called.  She's working on some sort of school project and needed the starting lineup from Game 7 of the 1955 World Series.  She said she looked on line for over a half hour and could find it.  Then she figured she'd call me.  (Wonder why.)  I had it on my screen before she finished telling me what she needed.

The Dodgers beat the Yankees in the game 2-0.  Johnny Podres threw a shutout and Gil Hodges drove in both runs for The Bums.

800pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	4	3IP 3H 3ER BB 5K
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	0	0/1
2B	Kinsler	Tex	1	0/0 BB
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	0/1
3B	Arod	NYY	13	2/3 2R 2RBI HR
OF	Granderson	NYY	5	2/3 R 2-2b
OF	Cuddyer	Min	0	0/1
OF	Matsui	LAA	2	1/3 2b
DH	Peralta	Det	0	0/0
			25
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	19	6IP 4H BB 6K
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	2	2/3
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	0/1
2B	Raburn	Det	1	0/0 BB
SS	Infante	Atl	0	0/3
3B	Zimmerman	Was	3	2/3 R
OF	Werth	Phi	1	0/1 BB
OF	Markakis	Bal	9	2/3 R RBI HR
OF	Morrison	Fla	1	0/2 R
DH	Dunn	Was	12	2/2 R 2RBI HR BB
			48

Hudson 1-2-3 in the 7th with 2 more Ks.

With 0.2% of precincts reporting, Ron Johnson has 78% of the vote for the GOP Senate primary.  He will win in a slaughter.

Walker up 54-42.

Wainwright has given up 5 runs on 9 hits - still in the 4th inning.  The night is going well.

Another 1-2-3 for Hudson.

830pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	-1	4IP 9H 5ER BB 7K
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	1	0/1 BB
2B	Kinsler	Tex	1	0/0 BB
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	0/1
3B	Arod	NYY	13	2/3 2R 2RBI HR
OF	Granderson	NYY	6	2/3 R 2-2b BB
OF	Cuddyer	Min	2	1/2 2b
OF	Matsui	LAA	2	1/3 2b
DH	Peralta	Det	1	0/1 RBI
			25
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	27	8IP 4H BB 8K
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	2	2/3
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	0/2
2B	Raburn	Det	2	0/0 R BB
SS	Infante	Atl	0	0/3
3B	Zimmerman	Was	3	2/4 R
OF	Werth	Phi	2	0/2 RBI BB
OF	Markakis	Bal	9	2/4 R RBI HR
OF	Morrison	Fla	1	0/2 R
DH	Dunn	Was	12	2/2 R 2RBI HR BB
			58

Jake just emailed and asked for another invite to the fantasy football league. Did that. I AM HOPPIN' TONIGHT.

Hudson is done.  Reds have 2 on in 9th.  AZ up 3-0 - need to hold on so Hudson gets the W.

Fuck the D-Bags bullpen.

OK - great catch by Upton to finish the game.  Hudson finishes with 32 points.

Wainwright settling in.

Walker-Neumann race is zig-zagging between even and Walker up 10.  It's closer than I thought it would be.

I just killed a centipede.

Wainwright still pitching into the 8th.

920pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	8	Final (assuming L)
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	1	0/2 BB
2B	Kinsler	Tex	3	0/0 R 2BB
SS	Andrus	Tex	0	0/3
3B	Arod	NYY	13	2/4 2R 2RBI HR
OF	Granderson	NYY	7	2/4 2R 2-2b BB
OF	Cuddyer	Min	2	1/3 2b
OF	Matsui	LAA	3	Final
DH	Peralta	Det	1	0/1 RBI
			38
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	32	Final
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0	dnp
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0
RP3	Gregg	Tor	0
C	McCann	Atl	2	Final
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	0/3
2B	Raburn	Det	2	0/0 R BB
SS	Infante	Atl	0	Final
3B	Zimmerman	Was	4	Final
OF	Werth	Phi	2	0/2 RBI BB
OF	Markakis	Bal	9	2/5 R RBI HR
OF	Morrison	Fla	3	1/3 R BB
DH	Dunn	Was	12	Final
			66

I don't see any way John wins this.

They just showed Jim Sundberg in the stands at the Rangers game. Holy fucking shit. The guy weighs about 300 pounds. He was stuffing his puss full of popcorn.

Walker up 52-45.

All these games are going slow.  It seems like Detroit and Texas have been playing for four hours.  Same for the Twins and Sox.

950pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	8	Final
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	0	Not starting
1B	AGonzalez	SD	1	0/3 BB
2B	Kinsler	Tex	7	1/2 R RBI 2BB
SS	Andrus	Tex	2	1/4 R
3B	Arod	NYY	13	2/5 2R 2RBI HR
OF	Granderson	NYY	7	2/5 2R 2-2b BB
OF	Cuddyer	Min	2	1/4 2b
OF	Matsui	LAA	3	Final
DH	Peralta	Det	1	0/3 RBI
			44
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	32	Final
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0	dnp
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0	(4 - Final)
C	McCann	Atl	2	Final
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	0/4
2B	Raburn	Det	2	0/2 R BB
SS	Infante	Atl	0	Final
3B	Zimmerman	Was	4	Final
OF	Werth	Phi	2	Final
OF	Markakis	Bal	9	Final
OF	Morrison	Fla	3	Final
DH	Dunn	Was	12	Final
			66

Yankees win.  Yankees wins. Th-uuuuuuuuuuuh, YANKEES WIN!  10-innings.  Carl Crawford is thrown out trying to tag up from 2B and go to 3B to end the game.  What a butt-head.

Walker wins. Walker wins. Sc-aaaaaaaht WALKER WINS!

Wow - totally missed this!  Jorge Posada did play.  And hit a pinch hit home run the motherfucker.  That tightens things up quite a bit.  I'll have another update as soon as the Twins-Sox game is over.  Or maybe when the Tigers game is over.

J.J. Hardy was the player of the game in the Twins game according to the broadcast team.

Tigers-Rangers game is in the 9th.  Peralta batting.

1020pm

JOHN - ARE YOU TALKING TO ME?
SP	Wainwright	StL	8	Final
RP1	Wilson	SF	0
RP2	Capps	Min	0	dnp
RP3	Aardsma	Sea	0
C	Posada	NYY	8	Final
1B	AGonzalez	SD	1	0/3 BB
2B	Kinsler	Tex	8	Final
SS	Andrus	Tex	4	Final
3B	Arod	NYY	13	Final
OF	Granderson	NYY	7	Final
OF	Cuddyer	Min	2	Final
OF	Matsui	LAA	3	Final
DH	Peralta	Det	1	Final
			55
TIEF - CHIEF BENDERS
SP	DHudson	Ari	32	Final
RP1	Wagner	Atl	0	dnp
RP2	Lyon	Hou	0	(4 - Final)
C	McCann	Atl	2	Final
1B	Cabrera	Det	0	Final
2B	Raburn	Det	2	Final
SS	Infante	Atl	0	Final
3B	Zimmerman	Was	4	Final
OF	Werth	Phi	2	Final
OF	Markakis	Bal	9	Final
OF	Morrison	Fla	3	Final
DH	Dunn	Was	12	Final
			66

Adrian Gonzalez will be up to bat in a couple of minutes - his last AB.

He's being walked intentionally.

OK, I think I'll wrap it up.  Gonzalez gets another point so it's Tief 66, John 56.  We each get a RP - that's it (unless the Padres game goes extras and Gonzalez bats again).  I'm not going to wait up to see if Wilson or Aardsma go later tonight.  I get 4 from Lyon if Wagner doesn't pitch.  It ain't over, but I like where I'm sittin'.

Scott Walker wins.

Ron Johnson wins.

Tief probably wins.

It's a...

Good Night!